Poland’s updated National Energy and Climate Plan assumes a sharp increase in power capacity, renewables and nuclear generation by 2040, the government said on June 8.

The plan, known as KPEiK, will now be sent to the European Commission, more than two years after Poland was due to submit an update.

KPEiK sets out two scenarios. The WEM (with existing measures) scenario is based on existing policies and measures, while the WAM (with additional measures) scenario assumes faster implementation of EU climate and energy goals.

Under the plan, installed capacity in the national power system is expected to rise to more than 90 GW by 2030 and to around 128-156 GW in 2040 – roughly doubling the 2025 figure – depending on the scenario.

Renewables account for most of the projected expansion. Renewables' installed capacity could reach around 84-92 GW by 2040, more than the current size of the whole power system, and represent almost 60% of total installed capacity.

The share of renewables in electricity generation is projected at 51.6%-53.2% in 2030 and 65.6%-68.9% in 2040 under the WEM-WAM range. 

In heating and cooling, the share of renewables is expected to rise to 31.6%-36.5% in 2030 and 43.5%-56.7% in 2040.

The plan also assumes a significant nuclear buildout. The first large nuclear units and small modular reactors are expected to start operating in the second half of the 2030s, providing around 40 TWh of baseload power, roughly 20% of the assumed power demand at that time.

The plan also projects lower energy import dependence, with the energy carrier import-export balance falling by around 11% by 2040 under WEM and 27% under the more ambitious WAM.