The battle for Pokrovsk is raging and the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) have captured half the city, but the situation is very confused. Reports from the city say there is no frontline as the Russians are using a “Brownian motion” tactic of constant movement not bothering to consolidate their control or take defensive position, hromadske reported on November 5.

While the fighting remains very fluid without well-defined positions, Russian forces have spread out across the city and its environs in rolling seek and destroy fighting. Often the Ukrainian and Russian positions overlap, reports say.

“Everything that is [contested] grey on [military blogger channel] DeepState in the city of Pokrovsk should be painted [occupied by Russia] red,” hromadske reports. “About 60% of the city the Russians control. The enemy is in Rodynske and in Myrnohrad. The situation is sh**ty,” a high-ranking officer from the Pokrovsk axis told the publication.

Fighting is particularly heavy around Rodynske that commands the entrance to the one open channel out of the pocket occupied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) defenders that also contains the town of Myrnohrad about 5km to the east of Pokrovsk.

Hundreds of some of Ukraine’s best paratroops are holding Myrnohrad against the Russian onslaught, while the AFR is trying to close the trap by pushing west from Rodynske to link up with their soldiers just north of Pokrovsk about 3km away. If this pincer movement is successful it could end in a catastrophic strategic defeat for Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin).

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is coming under fire from some Ukrainian commentators for not ordering a retreat. The Ukrainian president was in Pokrovsk himself yesterday where he held an underground ceremony in a bunker, handing out medals for bravery to members of the Azov fighting battalion who have been key to the defence of the city.

Bankova has proven itself to be very reluctant to cede territory to the advancing Russian forces in the past and in the fall of both Avdiivka on and Bakhmut – two other key cities lost to the Russian invaders – only ordered a withdrawal at the very last minute.

Russian forces have been able to capitalise on the AFU’s acute manpower shortage that has left kilometre-long holes in its defensive lines to infiltrate into the city since the end of last week and now the city finds itself on the verge of full occupation, according to reports.

While reports from interviews with individual AFU troops paint a grim picture of a slowly collapsing defence, the official line from Kyiv remains more upbeat. Zelenskiy admits that fighting is intense, but his own trip to Pokrovsk was designed to show that the AFU is still in the city and resisting the attacks and has used its elite units to mount a counter offensive.

hromadske spoke both with a dozen military personnel from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and with commanders, to understand whether the city can still be saved.

The picture that emerges is one of confusion. Villages around the city are constantly changing hands, as are individual buildings. Fighters on both sides are never sure exactly where their opponents are, but the AFU troops are reported under greater pressure to the lack of numbers and exhaustion after months of defending the city with no relief and little support.

For their part, the AFR have identified new weaknesses in the city’s perimeter and are bringing fresh troops into the city through these holes to bolster their attack.

“Numbers are definitely different now, considering that the Defence Forces are gradually eliminating Russians every day, and the enemy, unfortunately, continues to penetrate the city. In such a dynamic environment, precise counts only play into the enemy’s hands,” hromadske was told in response to a question about whether they know how many Russians are in the city.

“There is no longer talk of parity. They control a much larger part of Pokrovsk. They set the pace, impose the initiative, and set their own course of combat operations. In certain parts of Pokrovsk, they have entrenched themselves and hold the defence, in others — they move as far north as possible, aiming to go as deep as possible into our rear,” another UAV pilot told the publication.

One commander described the Russians as using “Brownian motion” tactics, where the Russian troops bypass forward Ukrainian infantry positions before turning back to attack from the rear.

The bodies of fallen soldiers reportedly litter the streets as neither side has had the time or calm to collect their dead due to constant running small-arms battles. Other reports say that Ukraine’s drone operators, the mainstay of the AFU defences given the shortage of men, have become less effective as UAV units are also being drawn into gun battles with roving Russian units, who appear to be specifically seeking them out.

“Because of this, our second echelon does not work, and it provides 90% of the strikes. Accordingly, we cannot kill Russians on the approaches to the city. And when we have no UAVs, Russia will always outnumber us in infantry personnel,” says the UAV pilot.

According to data from the 7th Air Assault Corps, 11,000 Russians are storming the city. There has been no official tally of the number of defenders, but some reports have mentioned that the Ukrainian forces defending Myrnohrad are in the hundreds, not thousands. Other reports put the ratio of attackers to defenders at eight-to-one.

Despite their numerical disadvantage, the AFU is better organised and hopes to launch a coordinated counteroffensive. The city was nearly lost at the weekend, but a well organised counterpunch by the Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) elite forces, flown in using Black Hawk helicopters, managed to turn the tide and push the Russian attackers back.

“If we do not allow the enemy to encircle the city and cut the logistics, the special forces inside Pokrovsk will have the opportunity and time to methodically ‘drive out’ the occupiers from every basement. This is joint work,” a communications officer from the 32nd Steel Brigade told hromadske.

Similar tactics are being used in Myrnohrad where AFR troops are filtering through holes in the defensive line and taking houses on the outskirts of the town, using them to harass the AFU defenders. Reportedly the Russian tactic is not to encircle the city, but to make an exit from the city impossible.

According to reports, the logistics route to supply Myrnohrad remains open, but it is also very narrow, according to multiple reports.