According to the St Petersburg anti-monopoly service, organised chains accounted for 91% of the food retail market in Russia’s second largest city in 2018. The leader was X5 Retail Group with 27%, followed by Lenta with 13.7%, and O’Key with 11%.
“St Petersburg has the highest penetration of modern formats in the country (the blended Russia figure is 73%, according to INFOLine). We note that the share is dependent on geographical presence and estimate that the mature stage of the market will see 80-85%,” VTB Capital (VTBC) said in a note.
X5 Retail Group has improved its market share 320bp y/y to 27% and thus crossed the 25% municipal threshold allowed by the retail law. As a result, it cannot roll out any new stores in the city until its share drops below 25% (as happened in 2009-13).
“We do not see any material risks to the company’s targets for 2,000 new stores in 2019 (after the 2,310 net openings last year). The prime focus is now on regions further from the capitals, particularly the Volga, Siberian and Southern regions,” VTBC said. “On a separate note, the head of the St Petersburg anti-monopoly services highlighted the agency’s position, that there should be no change in the current 25% threshold, although there had been several proposals from market participants.”
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