Bosnia’s Serb-dominated entity, Republika Srpska, is preparing for early presidential elections on November 23 following a court ruling that led to the removal of long-time leader Milorad Dodik from office. 

The vote takes place in a tense political climate, characterised by deep institutional divisions and heightened international scrutiny. The outcome will have repercussions beyond Republika Srpska, with implications for Bosnia's stability and the country's progress towards EU accession. 

The two leading candidates in the race are Siniša Karan of Dodik’s nationalist Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) and Branko Blanuša of the opposition Serb Democratic Party (SDS). 

Karan is widely regarded as a proxy for Dodik, who is unable to run following a ban on holding public office. A victory for Karan would likely signal a continuation of Dodik’s political agenda, including confrontation with state institutions, as well as a  deepening of Russian influence in the entity.

Should Blanuša secure a win in the election, this might lead to a change of Republika Srpska’s position including with more constructive dialogue with state level institutions, potentially unlocking reforms needed for Bosnia’s EU integration. 

Other candidates include Dragan Đokanović of the Alliance for a New Policy, Nikola Lazarević of the Environmental Party of RS and independents Igor Gašević and Slavko Dragičević.

The early election was triggered by the final ruling of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which sentenced Dodik to a one-year prison term for refusing to implement decisions issued by Christian Schmidt, the international envoy overseeing Bosnia’s postwar peace agreement, the Dayton Accord.

This was later converted into a fine, but the six-year ban on holding political office was upheld. Under Bosnian law, this automatically terminated his mandate as Republika Srpska president.

Republika Srpska authorities initially rejected the verdict, continuing to treat Dodik as the entity’s effective leader. He has since been replaced by Ana Triassic Basic as the entity’s acting president, but despite this he retains control over the ruling SNSD, as well as wielding considerable influence within Republika Srpska. 

Inflammatory rhetoric

During the campaign period, Dodik and his supporters frequently employed inflammatory rhetoric targeting Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims), as well as challening state institutions. 

Shortly before the vote, the Central Election Commission (CEC) sanctioned the SNSD with a fine of BAM30,000 (€15,000) for hate speech and polarising rhetoric. 

Days before the election, Bosnia’s Minister of Foreign Trade Staša Košarac sent a Nazi-era military helmet and a strongly worded letter to High Representative Christian Schmidt. Košarac, a senior member of the SNSD, addressed the letter to “the Occupier” and accused the German diplomat of following Nazi ideology.

Since 2006, Dodik has built his leadership on a combination of nationalist rhetoric, personalised governance, and strong ties to international allies such as Russia.

He has repeatedly elevated tensions within Bosnia by calling for the secession of Republika Srpska. He and other officials have taken active steps towards secession including by rejecting the authority of state institutions and High Representative Schmidt. 

Dodik has visited Moscow multiple times in recent years to seek support for his position. He has also cultivated relations with so-called illiberal leaders within Europe such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. 

Dodik remains under sanctions from several Western countries, although in late October, the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) removed the politician from its sanctions list, lifting certain property and financial restrictions.  Meanwhile, other Western sanctions from countries including Slovenia and the UK remain in effect.

Economic impact 

The political standoffs within the country are also damaging Bosnia’s EU accession prospects. The European Commission said on November 4 that Bosnia’s path to European Union membership has stalled, referencing the political crises in Republika Srpska. 

However, it added, that “following recent institutional changes in the Republika Srpska entity, Bosnia and Herzegovina has the opportunity to deliver on reforms on the EU path”. 

Economic reforms have also lagged. Bosnia’s GDP growth slowed to 2.6% in 2024 and about 1.7% in the first half of 2025, while labour shortages and rising wages reflected continued worker outflows. The Commission noted that political stalemate delayed decisions and structural reforms needed to establish a functioning market economy.

The report called on Bosnia to adopt judicial reform laws in full alignment with European standards and appoint a chief negotiator to advance EU accession negotiations. 

In August, S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Bosnia’s long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings at ‘B+/B’, maintaining a stable outlook, while noting that the country continues to face entrenched political tensions and institutional complexity that weigh on its reform agenda and credit profile.

However, S&P added the stable outlook reflects its expectation that despite ongoing internal frictions, including renewed secession threats from Republika Srpska, political disputes would not escalate beyond levels seen earlier this year and the state's core functions will remain intact.