Moldova’s headline inflation (chart) rose slightly, against the short-term trend,  to 7.0% year-on-year (y/y) in October from 6.9% y/y in September, driven by higher prices for food and utilities, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (BNS). Consumer prices increased by 0.65% month-on-month (m/m), the sharpest monthly rise since April.

The increase was mainly due to volatile food prices, particularly vegetables, alongside higher household utility costs. Core inflation also picked up to 5.3% y/y in October after dropping to the year’s lowest level of 5.1% in September, indicating broader price pressures beyond seasonal fluctuations.

Food prices rose by more than 1% m/m in October, with vegetable prices jumping 6.8% m/m. On an annual basis, food inflation accelerated marginally to 6.8% y/y from 6.7% y/y in September.

The cost of utilities increased by 0.22% m/m, pushing annual growth to 25% y/y compared with 24.5% in the previous month.

The National Bank of Moldova (BNM) kept its key policy rate unchanged at 6.0% during its November meeting, following a series of cuts in July and August that reversed the tight monetary stance from earlier in the year. The central bank noted that inflation had eased from its peak in January–February.

BNM projects average annual inflation to drop from 7.7% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026, maintaining its forecast for next year while raising the 2026 projection by 0.4 percentage points.

The outlook was revised upward for most of the forecast horizon, except for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, where only minor downward adjustments were made.

The central bank attributed the upward revision to expectations of stronger aggregate demand beginning in early 2026 and higher food prices on global markets in the first half of 2027.

The BNM targets 5% inflation with a +/-1.5 percentage points targeting band.