The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on November 20 that Montenegro’s economy, despite showing notable resilience in recent years, is now experiencing a gradual slowdown.

Growth, which averaged around 9% annually between 2021 and 2023, moderated to 3.2% in 2024 and in the first half of 2025.

In its Article IV Consultation, completed on November 18, the IMF noted that Montenegro’s fiscal position—after strong improvement in 2021–23—has begun to weaken again.

The Fund warned that although short-term pressures could be addressed through active fiscal management, long-term challenges linked to ageing, health and defence spending will continue to increase, requiring deeper structural reforms. The general government deficit is projected to widen from 2.9% of GDP in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025, while public debt is expected to rise gradually toward 65% of GDP by 2030.

The IMF also pointed to a weakening external position, driven partly by temporary factors, and stressed that Montenegro must rebalance its economy away from consumption. Diversification, stronger foreign direct investment and expansion into sectors beyond tourism would help reduce external imbalances and strengthen resilience to future shocks.

Inflation, which had fallen sharply to 1% in late 2024, has risen again, reaching 4.9% by September 2025. The IMF projects average inflation of around 4% in 2025, easing toward 2% in the medium term.

Executive directors commended Montenegro’s progress towards EU membership and its recovery from the pandemic but urged authorities to reinforce fiscal sustainability, reform public spending, and safeguard the operational independence of the central bank.

They also called for close monitoring of rapid private-sector lending, rising real estate prices, and stronger anti–money laundering enforcement.

The IMF concluded that continued structural reforms, improved productivity and a broader economic base will be essential for Montenegro to secure long-term, high-quality growth.