Industrial output in Slovakia increased by 0.7% year-on-year in September, returning to mild growth after it deepened its decline to 6.3% y/y in August.

The September development came as a surprise to local market analysts, who, however, do not expect the industry to experience a more substantial revival. Month-on-month, the industry rose by 3.3%. From January to September, industrial output fell by 2.3% y/y.

“Although the assessment of the current production is relatively optimistic, the future outlook does not offer much optimism,” analysts at Erste’s local branch, Matej Horňák, was quoted as saying by Slovak press agency TASR, which reported on the latest figures released by the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic.

September was only the second month this year that industry rose and came as transportation equipment production returned to growth of 4.4% y/y. The month also saw 44% growth in the output of chemicals and chemical products, and 20% growth in coke and refined oil products.  

On the other hand, production of machinery was down by 11%, and the output in the energy sector also fell. Overall, one third of the monitored sectors registered growth.

“The mood among Slovak industrialists has deepened further into negative, indicated by the negative sentiment among entrepreneurs,” Horňák added.

Slovak analysts do not expect a more stable upward development in industry to take root without a revival of the German economy, which is expected to implement one of the most significant fiscal stimulation packages in its history.