Opinion

MACRO ADVISORY: Georgia is too important to sanction

Chris Weafer CEO of Macro-Advisory July 28, 2025

Despite warnings from the World Bank, the IMF and some Rating Agencies that the continuing protests in Tbilisi and the deteriorating relations with the European Union will have a negative impact on Georgia’s economy its not happening yet.

COMMENT: Trump’s energy deal with the EU is delusional – Reuters

bne IntelliNews July 28, 2025

The energy deal that US President Donald Trump cut with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen over the weekend is unrealistic, Clyde Russell, Reuters Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist argues.

RIDDLE: Why Russia’s housing market defied the mortgage subsidy collapse

Vladislav Inozemtsev for Riddle July 27, 2025

In early July 2025 a year passed since the end of Russia’s subsidised mortgage programme, which many expected would trigger a massive crisis in the construction industry. This didn't happen and the market continues to grow.

COMMENT: Why Russia's economic model no longer delivers

bne IntelliNews July 25, 2025

At this year’s St. Petersburg Economic Forum—a once-prestigious event that has grown increasingly insular—Russian economic officials faced uncomfortable questions about the country’s future.

COMMENT: China won’t loosen its grip on critical mineral exports

bne IntelliNews July 24, 2025

By retaining firm control over its critical mineral exports, China continues to prioritise strategic leverage and industrial competitiveness over trade liberalisation, according to analysis by Leah Fahy, assistant economist at Capital Economics.

COMMENT: The war in Ukraine is over and its EU aspirations are dead for now

Ben Aris in Berlin July 24, 2025

Ukraine’s war with Russia increasingly looks like it is lost. Ukraine is losing ground in the battle with Russia, albeit slowly. At the same time, Kyiv’s EU accession bid appears to be dead following a new law that guts anti-corruption efforts.

COMMENT: Ukraine faces budget test this year as growth slows

Ben Aris in Berlin July 22, 2025

Ukraine’s slow post-war economic recovery and growing fiscal demands have placed new pressure on the government in Kyiv to secure additional international funding, with analysts at ICU warning of a looming $10bn to $15bn shortfall for 2026.

COMMENT: Can BRICS deliver beyond the rhetoric? experts weigh in

Ricardo Martins in Utrecht July 22, 2025

BRICS has evolved from an emerging economies club into a coalition Trump sees as threatening enough to warrant tariffs. Experts reveal tensions between China's dominance and multipolar goals, with institutional gaps but growing Global South support.

ASH: Türkiye – geopolitical opportunity knocks

Timothy Ash July 21, 2025

Potential for big wins, but also new headaches for Erdogan.

COMMENT: Zelenskiy losing the trust of his people as he adopts more authoritarian ruling style

Ben Aris in Berlin July 21, 2025

Russian disinformation is playing on legitimate fears that the Ukrainian president is concentrating more and more power in his own hands at a time when his popularity is starting to fade.

COMMENT: Poland’s presidential result heightens risks to fiscal reform, says Fitch

bne IntelliNews July 20, 2025

Poland’s recent presidential election result risks deepening political instability and weakening the government’s ability to implement fiscal consolidation and economic reform, according to a note from Fitch Ratings released on July 17.

COMMENT: Zelenskiy’s latest reshuffle reinforces presidential power, not government reform

Ben Aris in Berlin July 17, 2025

Ukraine’s new prime minister, Yuliia Svyrydenko, is the first to hold the post in five years – but her appointment is unlikely to signal a major shift in Kyiv’s governance.

COMMENT: Trump’s 100% tariff threat to Russian oil customers unlikely to work

bne IntelliNews July 17, 2025

Donald Trump’s threat to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil is probably more symbolic than practical, says a leading oil analyst and senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Sergey Vakulenko.

Armenia walking ‘tightrope’ as it shifts away from Russia, think-tank says

Clare Nuttall in Glasgow July 16, 2025

Armenia is stepping up efforts to reduce its reliance on Russia, but is constrained by geography, security threats and deep economic ties to Moscow, according to think-tank Clingendael.

EU risks fuelling democratic decline in Balkans as reform credibility erodes, report warns

Clare Nuttall in Glasgow July 16, 2025

The European Union is prioritising short-term stability over genuine democratic reform, says a report from the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group.

ING: The great eurozone split – and why southern jobs are booming

Bert Colijn and Carsten Brzeski of ING July 16, 2025

Since early 2023, countries in Southern Europe have seen strong declines in unemployment, while those in the north have seen increases. This is helping eurozone convergence.

COMMENT: Israel's bombing of Syria puts Druze minority in peril

bnm Gulf bureau July 16, 2025

Israel's latest bombing campaign of central locations in Damascus, Daraa and other locations following days of clashes between the Druze religious minority and the Turkish-backed government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa has worsened the situation.

COMMENT: Bogotá summit marks Global South’s legal break with the West over Gaza

Marco Cacciati July 15, 2025

At the Bogotá summit, the Global South takes charge – no longer waiting for Western permission to enforce international law. From South Africa’s ICJ case to Colombia cutting ties with Israel, countries are defying US pressure over Gaza.

COMMENT: Kremlin goes on the offensive in the south by expanding former prime minister Kiriyenko's foreign policy powers

bne IntelliNews July 15, 2025

The Kremlin used to tread softly when exercising its influence in the countries along its southern border, but no more, after the powers of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s chief of staff Kiriyenko were expanded.

COMMENT: What will Trump’s Russian 100% secondary sanctions do to the oil markets?

bne IntelliNews July 15, 2025

US President Donald Trump announced on July 14 that the US could impose 100% secondary sanctions on any country that does business with Russia if no ceasefire deal in Ukraine is reached within 50 days.

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