The head of Nigeria’s state oil company says crude oil receipts at pipelines and export terminals are now “close to 100%,” a significant recovery from previous levels as low as 30% during a period of widespread theft in the Niger Delta, Channels TV and other local media report.

Bayo Bashir Ojulari, appointed Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) group head in April, amid concerns about the company’s performance and failure to meet vital production targets, credited the improvement to enhanced collaboration with military and intelligence services.

Speaking at the 2025 African Chiefs of Defence Staff Summit, he is cited as saying that the sector is beginning to win the war against crude theft, with terminal receipts of crude oil that were as low as 30% now attaining close to 100%, owing to the support of security forces and intelligence agencies.

“We have seen the benefits of the collaboration within the security space, with significant improvement in our operating environment,” Channels TV quotes him as saying.

“The devastating impact of crude theft and pipeline attacks is now becoming an issue of the past, and this has come from the immense and intentional efforts of our government agencies and intelligence agencies across the nation and within the Niger Delta.”

Ojulari went on to highlight the continued risk from both domestic and international criminal syndicates that exploit security gaps in the region.

The recovery in measured receipts is critical for Nigeria’s fiscal outlook. The 2025 federal budget is based on oil production of 2.06mn barrels per day (bpd) at a benchmark price of $75 per barrel.

These targets have been consistently undermined by pipeline vandalism and theft. Improved metering and lower in-transit losses are expected to increase export realisations and foreign exchange inflows, even in the absence of higher total production.

According to official data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), cited by Nairametrics, average crude output rose to 1.71mn bpd in July 2025, a 9.9% increase year on year. The figure comprises 1.507mn bpd of crude oil and 204,864 bpd of condensates.

Although production remains below budgeted levels, maintaining near-complete terminal receipts would help close the gap. Higher accountability in crude handling is also expected to support compliance with crude-for-cash deals, refinery supply planning, and debt servicing for joint-venture projects.

Ojulari also described oil theft as a transnational issue requiring coordinated regional action. He called for holistic measures to dismantle networks involved in illegal refining, bunkering, and maritime smuggling. NNPCL, he said, would continue to support cross-border intelligence-sharing initiatives to bolster operational security.

Ojulari, who served as managing director of Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCo) from November 2015 until July 2021, has been tasked with expanding NNPCL’s refining capacity to 200,000 bpd by 2027 and reaching 500,000 bpd by 2030. His mandate also includes increasing natural gas production to 10bn cubic feet per day by the end of the decade.