Poland’s two largest political parties fired the opening shots of the 2027 general election campaign last weekend, holding back-to-back conventions to set out rival visions for the country.

The opposition populist Law and Justice (PiS) gathered in the southern city of Katowice on October 24-25, while the ruling Civic Coalition (KO) staged its own convention in Warsaw a day later.  

The parallel events were an early test of strength between Prime Minister Donald Tusk and opposition leader Jarosław Kaczyński. After returning to power in late 2023, Tusk steered Poland back toward close cooperation with the EU, although he continues to struggle to end the dispute with Brussels over judicial independence, which PiS had compromised.

Last June, Tusk’s grand plans suffered a serious blow after the KO-backed hopeful Rafał Trzaskowski narrowly lost the presidential election to PiS’s Karol Nawrocki, who has worked to hamper the government’s policy rollout since. 

With new wind in its sales, PiS declared in Katowice that “Poland requires a truly profound change”, urging members to prepare for victory in 2027. 

The next vote must be “a choice between two paths — one leading to national success, the other to disaster,” Kaczyński told the convention. The PiS leader cast fellow EU member states Germany and France as threats to Polish sovereignty while praising the US as the model for what he called a “militant democracy”.  

He also called for a complete overhaul of healthcare, an increase of defence spending to at least 5% of GDP, and a simplified tax system aided by artificial intelligence.

Behind the scenes, Polish media reported, party insiders debated who should front the PiS campaign: the combative former education minister Przemysław Czarnek or the more moderate former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki. 

Other discussions floated new welfare measures, including a “housing voucher” for large families and a universal basic income.  

In Warsaw, Tusk used KO’s convention to formalise the merger of Civic Platform with close allies Modern and the Polish Initiative into a single party. 

Framing the move as a “new chapter” for the ruling camp, he promised voters “a golden decade” if KO retains power, referring to forecasts of Poland's economic growth of at least 3% in the coming years.

Tusk said KO’s new platform would be unveiled before the 2027 election and that internal leadership elections would take place by the end of this year, confirming he would stand for re-election as party leader. 

The prime minister also vowed to continue Poland’s pro-EU course, countering Kaczyński’s narrative that Western Europe undermines Polish sovereignty. “We will not let ourselves be divided from Europe or from the West,” he said.

Later on, in social media, Tusk said that the talk about France or Germany looking to “take away Polish sovereignty” must come from “either a madman or a Russian agent”.  

The prime minister also revived his 2023 campaign pledge to hold former PiS officials accountable for corruption and abuse of power. 

“I prefer to live in a country where a thief is afraid, not one where a thief rules,” Tusk said. 

The conventions mark the unofficial start to the campaign, with the actual campaign beginning shortly before the election, the date of which has not been set yet.

While Tusk’s KO is leading the polls, a major concern for the ruling party is that its smaller coalition partners - the centrist Polska 2050, the conservative Polish People’s Party, and the Left - are all struggling to clear minimum thresholds to win any seats in the parliament.

If the trend persists, Tusk’s party might win the election in terms of the highest vote share but it could be left stranded politically if PiS and the far-right Konfederacja win a majority.