Mexico avoided falling into technical recession during the first quarter of 2025, when the country experienced uncertainty from Donald Trump's early days in the White House and implementation of his protectionist tariff-based policies, Bloomberg Línea reported.

The economy grew 0.2% in real terms during the first quarter of 2025 compared to the immediate previous quarter, according to definitive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data published by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).

A month ago, Inegi preliminarily reported 0.2% quarterly growth in its Timely GDP Estimate. The definitive GDP data confirmed Mexico avoided a technical recession, which occurs when two quarters register consecutive negative quarterly growth.

Economic activity experienced a first quarter filled with instability amid tariff threats from the US president, though between January and March 2025, imposed tariffs on steel, aluminium, auto parts and automobiles had not yet taken effect.

By economic sectors during January-March with seasonally adjusted series, primary activities GDP increased 7.8%, whilst secondary and tertiary activities declined 0.1%.

At annual rates, definitive GDP data showed the economy grew 0.6%. By sectors, primary activities rose 6.7% and tertiary activities 1.1%, whilst secondary activities GDP fell 1.3%.

Mexico's Economic Cycle Dating Committee determined insufficient elements exist to determine a new turning point in the economy pointing toward recession. The Mexican association of finance executives (IMEF) met recently to deliberate whether available economic indicators permit identifying a new turning point marking the end of the expansive phase begun in June 2020.

In a May 21 statement, the committee indicated it would remain attentive to economic indicator evolution, noting determinations are based on "hard and definitive data" rather than speculation or forecasts.

IMEF has cut its 2025 growth forecast for a fourth straight month, blaming US trade tariffs.
The May survey expects GDP to rise just 0.1%, down from 0.2% in April. Respondents predicting economic contraction jumped to 16 from nine in April.

"We're already seeing the [US tariffs'] impacts," said IMEF economic studies director Victor Herrera, predicting that May trade data will likely show a sharp drop in Mexican exports to the US despite a number of exceptions granted by Washington under the USMCA framework.