Georgia’s October 4 municipal elections are already mired in controversy, as major international observers refuse to participate and key opposition parties extend their boycott amid growing state repression.

With less than a month to go until the vote, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party issued a last-minute invitation to the OSCE’s Office for Democracy Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) to observe an election that watchdogs warn is set to be undemocratic.

Days later the organisation responded that, “regrettably”, it would not be able to deploy a mission, as such a late summons rendered “effective observation impossible”.

Instead, a lesser-known roster of foreign observers – many of them state-affiliated – will be present on polling day, a list which so far includes Turkey’s Supreme Election Council and Kyrgyzstan’s Central Commission on Elections and Referenda, two countries not exactly famed for championing healthy democratic competition.

The absence of a key international monitor like the OSCE/ODIHR will fuel existing fears in Georgia of an unfair contest and predetermined election result.

GD critics argue that the ongoing persecution of government opponents, mounting pressure on NGOs and independent media, and a recent overhaul of the electoral legislative framework collectively undermine the election process, tilting the vote firmly in the ruling party’s favour while dooming the splintered political opposition to defeat.

Georgia’s top election watchdog the International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED) has said its “standard” monitoring mission will not observe either, declaring the conditions necessary for a “free, fair and competitive” vote are “largely un-met”.

The Georgian Charter of Journalist Ethics followed suit, noting that “the repressive laws adopted by GD and its harmful policies towards the media” have made it impossible to carrying out its usual election coverage monitoring, not to mention sapped the organisation of crucial overseas funding.

They are not the only ones boycotting the vote.

To run or not to run

Eight pro-Western opposition parties have announced they will not participate on October 4, extending their ongoing boycott of the Georgian parliament, which began following the contentious general election last autumn.

The parties insist that to run is to grant a façade of legitimacy to what they claim is an illegitimate GD government, and instead tout “complete non-cooperation with the [GD] regime” – and a new round of parliamentary elections – as the only viable way to successfully push out the ruling party.

Six high profile opposition figures have been in jail since June, including leaders of the Coalition for Change and Unity-UNM alliances, Georgia’s largest opposition blocs.

All are charged with defying the summons of GD’s controversial parliamentary commission to probe the activities of the former UNM government.

Citing the boycott, the political persecution of their colleagues and the ongoing anti-government protest movement gripping Georgia, the abstaining parties – like local watchdogs – insist the current political environment does not provide for democratic and competitive elections.

The boycotters have instead declared October 4 a day of peaceful public protest aimed at toppling the GD government.

Two major opposition parties, on the other hand, are running, a hugely divisive move which epitomises the internal rifts that have come to plague Georgia’s opposition spectrum.

The Lelo/Strong Georgia alliance and former Georgian prime minister Giorgi Gakharia’s For Georgia will compete against just 12 other parties cleared by the Central Election Commission to participate, way below the 41 groups that ran on the 2021 ballot.

The two opposition blocs – which have signed a memorandum to cooperate throughout the campaign – view the impending vote as an opportunity to challenge GD in major cities, including Tbilisi.

Their joint mayoral candidate, Irakli Kupradze, with a campaign pledge to “get our city back”, is hoping to gain traction in the resistance hotspot where support for the ruling party is relatively low, and much lower than in Georgia’s poorer, rural regions.

After the GD-appointed Georgian president, Mikheil Kavelashvili, issued a pardon to imprisoned Lelo leaders Badri Japaridze and Mamuka Khazaradze on September 5, many boycotters accused the ruling party of attempting to engineer legitimacy ahead of the vote, essentially by granting freedom to jailed government opponents in exchange for their candidacy.

Japaridze and Khazaradze, however, re-affirmed on leaving jail that Lelo would be running, though condemned what they saw as GD’s attempt to sow “chaos” and “confrontation” within an already fractured opposition.

GD’s anti-European campaign

Meanwhile, the face of GD’s mayoral candidate, the incumbent Kakha Kaladze, is plastered all over the Georgian capital.

Like Kaladze, all 25 majoritarian candidates for the self-governing Tbilisi City Council are men, as are all but two of the party’s mayoral candidates for Georgia’s 63 municipalities outside of Tbilisi. 

The Lelo/Strong Georgia-For Georgia alliance, meanwhile, has named 12 women among its 25 Tbilisi City Council candidates, of which 13 are from Lelo and 11 from For Georgia, and one neutral.

As the October 4 vote has drawn nearer, Kaladze has made a number of pledges – restoring a key tram route and launching much-needed renovation works on dilapidated buildings – in an apparent attempt by GD to consolidate its dwindling support base in the capital ahead of polling day.

The party has also revived its controversial war vs. peace propaganda campaign, which pits images of bombed-out Ukraine against prosperous Georgia, a move Kyiv was quick to condemn.

GD continues to doggedly accuse subversive “external forces” – the so-called “Global War Party” or “deep state” – of attempting to interfere in domestic politics and open a second front of the Russia-Ukraine war on Georgian soil.

Georgian Dream alone, the ruling party claims, can keep conflict at bay, a pledge it also applies to the issue of Georgia’s accession to the European Union.

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze recently insisted EU membership by 2030 remains a top “foreign policy priority”, provided GD is not “blackmailed” by Brussels and “peace, dignity and prosperity” in Georgia are not compromised.

Few in Georgia – where 78% support EU accession – buy this.

A recent public opinion poll revealed over half the population would blame GD if Georgia were to lose visa-free travel to the EU, a privilege Brussels has warned it may be forced to withdraw in light of democratic backsliding by the GD government.

Similarly, declaring that the situation had worsened dramatically in recent months, 51 members of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) stated recently that Georgia may soon face expulsion from the council in light of the government’s authoritarian course.

Mounting intimidation

GD has deflected and downplayed Europe’s warnings, instead focusing its efforts on consolidating power and muffling dissent at home, cranking up repression and intimidation amid an anti-government protest movement which looks to be losing steam.

In recent weeks bne IntelliNews has reported on numerous years-long prison sentences dished out to protesters – some as young as 19 – for minor protest-related offences.

All defendants have pleaded not guilty, citing insufficient evidence and political motivation behind their cases in connection with their participation in the protests.

Tensions are rising on the streets, where mass arrests at rallies have given way to violent attacks on demonstrators by GD loyalists.

Clashes on the evening of September 8 outside Kaladze’s campaign HQ left over ten injured and several hospitalised, including journalists, after ruling party supporters used brute force, batons, rocks and metal barriers to hurt protesters.

Critics are calling the incident a clear escalation by GD, which appears to now be outsourcing intimidation and violence to hired “titushky” assailants rather than police. Despite being present in large numbers on September 8, officers made no arrests.

Protests continue nightly and remain predominantly reactive in nature, as demonstrated by the much larger crowds which turned out September 9 following the attacks by GD supporters and on September 2 to protest the release of the controversial commission findings and the jailing of eight demonstrators.

According to prominent activist and member of the Droa opposition party, Marika Mikiashvili, protester attitudes in Georgia are currently undergoing a “transformation”.

Writing on X on September 9, Mikiashvili explained that, after almost 10 months of daily protests, the resistance movement is today set on a “non-violent” revolution as a “quick solution” to Georgia’s prolonged political crisis, as opposed to regime overthrow via “institutionalised paths” as is being pushed by those who have chosen to run on October 4.

It is currently unclear whether the clashes between anti- and pro-GD groups will draw protesters back out onto the streets in the same numbers as in spring and winter 2024, though the current situation is undoubtedly extremely volatile.