Iranian missile strikes caused destruction in central Tel Aviv. 

With the conflict between Iran and Israel rapidly spiralling out of control, has the world reached a “Sarajevo moment” where the great powers get pulled into a small regional conflict that could spark WWIII? Reactions to the start of the Israel-Iran war by the leading powers are already highly polarised along partisan lines. Israel launched a string of unprovoked attacks on June 13, starting with strikes against Iranian uranium enrichment sites and top military commanders and scientists involved in the nuclear programme. But as the day wore on, it widened its attacks to take out major military installations, the air force and Iran’s air defence system in a highly coordinated and obviously well-planned attack.

The situation is now extremely unstable and could tip over into a global conflict. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk put it succinctly saying in a post on social media: “The confrontation between Israel and Iran is moving towards a regular war in the region that may destabilise the whole world. Since WWII we haven’t been so close to a global conflict. Europe and the US must unite their efforts to stop further escalation. It is still not too late!”

The red flag of revenge has been raised over Jamkaran Mosque in Qom. In Shi'a tradition, a red flag signifies blood unjustly shed and is a call for vengeance. Specifically, it is linked to the martyrdom of Imam Hussein, the Prophet Muhammad’s grandson, at the Battle of Karbala in 680 AD that became the foundation of Shi'a notions of martyrdom and justice and the origin of the schism that has plagued Islam ever since. The mosque is associated with the Mahdi, the 12th Imam, who is expected to return to bring justice. The last time it was hoisted was in January 2020 after the US drone strike killed General Qassem Soleimani, head of Iran’s Quds Force. The appearance of the flag will fuel nationalistic and religious fervour in Iran and is a call to arms.

 

The red flag of revenge has been raised over Jamkaran Mosque in Qom in a call to arms. 

Overnight, dozens of Iranian missiles hit targets in Israel. Tehran says it’s retaliation for the nuclear site attack. At least 63 people have been injured and one killed in Israel. In Iran there are a reported 78 dead and over 320 wounded, according to local reports. Iran shot down a US fifth generation F-35 fighter jet in a first and also hit Israel's answer to the Pentagon, the HaKirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv with a missile as Iran’s rocket attacks prove to be more effective than previously thought possible.

Israel's answer to the Pentagon, the HaKirya military HQ in Tel Aviv, was targetted and struck by Iranian missiles. 

Tehran has warned any country siding with Israel will have its military bases targeted, in an implicit threat to the US that could bring the US directly into the war should Tehran hit US bases scattered throughout the region if they supply or support Tel Aviv military operations.

Tehran responded by launching drones and cruise missile attacks on Israel that managed to penetrate the Iron Dome missile defence system and cause major damage in cities like Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

However, the fighting was threatening to spill out to surrounding countries. US and UK fighter jets were reportedly participating in the effort to shoot down inbound drones and missiles and Iran supreme leader Ali Khamenei warned that the military assets of “any country participating in the attack on Iran would be targeted.”

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned in a statement the same day that Iran should not target military personal or military bases in the region to “face the consequences,” threatening to join the assault on Iran with its Israeli partners should US servicemen be killed in the escalating conflict. China, Russia, North Korea and dozens of other countries came out with statements and condemned Israel’s attack in the strongest terms, pledging to support Iran in its struggle against the Israeli onslaught.

As world divides into two over the conflict, with the Western powers largely backing Israel’s “right to defend itself” vs the Global South condemnation of what they see as imperialistic bullying and unjustified use of military force by the US, the danger is that like in 1914, the conflict could spread as each side sends reinforcements and supplies to their respective proxies to prevent their defeat in the same way that triggered the first world war.

The assassination in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914, of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary and his wife acted as the immediate trigger for WWI after Austria-Hungary blamed Serbia for the killing and issued an ultimatum. When Serbia’s response failed to satisfy Vienna, Austria-Hungary declared war on July 28, setting off a chain reaction due to a web of alliances that pulled in Russia, which mobilised in defence of Serbia, Germany which declared war on Russia and France, and Germany which invaded Belgium, prompting Britain to enter the war. Within weeks, most of Europe was at war.

While the lessons of history from WWI are starkly etched into the consciousness of all world leaders and the alliances between countries like Iran and Russia are not formal treaties making the chances of a broader global conflict much less likely, an escalation is still possible but would be fought along the lines of the Ukraine war, without overt military action between, say the US and Russia in defence of their allies Israel and Iran, but covert in the form of weapons supplies, money and international pressure inflaming already poor relations and international tensions further.

United Nations Security Council emergency meeting

Iran called an emergency United Nations Security Council (UNSC) meeting the same day and its ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani accused the US of being complicit in Israel's attacks on the Republic, which Washington denied.

"Those who support this regime, with the US at the forefront, must understand that they are complicit," Iravani told the Security Council. "By aiding and enabling these crimes, they share full responsibility for the consequences."

The US ambassador McCoy Pitt countered with threats, telling Tehran that it would "be wise" to negotiate over its nuclear programme and highlighting that Washington would not tolerate any strikes against its personal or military bases in the Middle East in retribution.  "Iran's leadership would be wise to negotiate at this time," Pitt told the council. While Washington was informed of Israel's initial strikes ahead of time it was not militarily involved, he said.

After initially denying the US had any involvement, or even knowledge of the attack, US President Donald Trump said that he had given Tehran a 60-day ultimatum, which expired on June 12, and was fully aware of the upcoming strike on Iran, which Washington condoned.

Israel’s UN envoy Danny Danon cast its attack on Iran’s nuclear sites as “an act of national preservation”, claiming Iran was “days away” from producing enough fissile material for multiple bombs.

“This operation was carried out because the alternative was unthinkable. How long did the world expect us to wait? Until they assemble the bomb? Until they mount it on a Shahab missile? Until it is en route to Tel Aviv or Jerusalem?” he added. “We will not hesitate, we will not relent, and we will not allow a genocidal regime to endanger our people.”

The Russian ambassador Vassily Nebenzia, said Israel’s actions in the Middle East are “pushing the region to a large-scale nuclear catastrophe”.

“This completely unprovoked attack, no matter what Israel says to the contrary, is a gross violation of the UN Charter and international law,” he said as cited by Al Jazeera.

International reactions

Most of the world’s leading nations commented on the outbreak of war between Israel and Iran, but the reactions were starkly divided between the two camps.

North Korea, which is part of the Russia-Iran-North Korea alliance which sees itself fighting against the US via a Ukrainian proxy, came in support of Tehran. Kim Jong Un said that he was “prepared to repel the Israeli attack in cooperation with Iran.” North Korea has emerged as a major arms producer, supplying Russia in its conflict in Ukraine and also sent 10,000 troops to support the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) earlier this year.

Russian President Vladimir Putin didn’t mince words in his condemnation of the attack, blaming the deep state for US support of Israeli aggression.

Russia's Putin  blamed the deep state for the US support of Israel in the attacaks on Iran. 

“No US president truly holds power. And now, even Donald Trump, once the loudmouth promising peace, shows his true colours by backing attacks on Iran. Just another puppet controlled by the Deep State, serving the machine while pretending to lead,” he said in a televised interview.

His comments were seen by many observers as hypocritical, urging Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “use diplomacy, not bombs” with Iran, when the Kremlin has been using bombs in Ukraine for more than three years to address its own “existential securing concerns.”

Putin told Iran's president over the phone on June 13 that Moscow “condemned Israeli actions against Tehran,” and in a separate telephone conversation told Israel's prime minister that “only diplomacy could resolve issues around Iran's nuclear programme,” Reuters reports.

Putin told Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian that Russia "condemns the actions of Israel taken in violation of the UN Charter" and expressed condolences for those killed, according to a Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement, despite Russia’s own bombing campaign against civilian targets that has escalated sharply in the last month.

Russia said the Israeli strikes on Iran were “unprovoked” and accused Israel of wrecking diplomatic efforts to reach a new deal to allay Western fears over Tehran's nuclear programme. Moscow has repeatedly offered to help the US and Iran reach a deal on the nuclear programme and has considerable sway over Tehran as a key economic and military ally, relying heavily on Iran’s production of drones and missiles to supply itself in its war in Ukraine.

The outbreak of a full blown war in the Middle East will have consequences for Russia’s campaign in Ukraine as reports emerge that Tehran has suspended all arms supplies to Russia - primarily engines for the Shaheds drones, gunpowder and explosives, which the Russian occupation army desperately needs.

China also came out to stringently criticise the Israeli attack, saying it has crossed another red line.

A spokesman for China’s foreign ministry said in a statement. “We strongly condemn the Israeli attack on Iran that is in violation of Iran's sovereignty and internal integrity. We are particularly concerned they are attacking nuclear facilities, which is another red line that Israel has crossed.”

China and Russia have been promoting a multipolar model of geopolitics where countries are granted autonomy to make their own security arrangements, but disputes should be resolved at international level in bodies like the UN and not by military coalitions and the use of force. However, despite this rhetorical stance, critics point to Russia’s use of force to resolve its stated security concerns with Ukraine.

How China reacts could play a crucial role as it is in a position to provide Iran with significant military supplies. China’s growing military prowess was on display in the recent short war between India and Pakistan. Pakistan surprised the world when it employed Chinese-made Chengdu J‑10C fighter‑jets armed with PL‑15 missiles to shoot down at least two of India’s advanced aircraft, despite having the weaker air force after India launched Operation Sindoor in a border dispute. Military experts say that China could help Iran establish an air defence system capable of shooting down Israel's F-35, one of which Iran just downed for the first time ever. And both Russia and China also have advanced communication technology that can counter Mossad monitoring as well as other sophisticated electronic warfare (EW) assets to counter US-made technologies.

However, as with its commitment to Moscow’s campaign in Ukraine, Beijing will be very reluctant to get involved directly in the war in the Middle East and will be more useful to Tehran as a bargaining chip in talks with the US on a compromise solution.

Germany came out unequivocally in Israel’s support, condemning Iran for responding to the unprovoked strikes on its cities, but failing to comment on the Israeli attacks at all.

“The situation in the Middle East has escalated dramatically overnight. Israel has carried out targeted strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran is responding with hundreds of drone attacks on Israel. This development is more than alarming,” the German foreign ministry said in a statement. “We strongly condemn the indiscriminate Iranian attack on Israeli territory. Iran’s nuclear program violates the Non-Proliferation Treaty and poses a threat to the entire region – especially to Israel.”

Berlin also invoked the “right to defend itself” troupe that has become the mainstay of those defending Israel, ignoring the fact that Tel Aviv was the aggressor in these attacks, despite the possible justifications for them.

“Israel has the right to defend its existence and the security of its citizens. At the same time, we call on all parties to avoid further escalation. Germany remains committed to diplomacy – together with our partners in Europe and the United States,” the German foreign ministry said.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has also been accused of complicity in the Israeli attack and accused by some of supplying Tel Aviv with the names and addresses of Iran’s top nuclear scientists, several of which were targeted in the June 13 early morning missile strikes.

In a vote to censure Iran’s uranium enrichment programme, the majority of the IAEA members voted for it with only China and Russia voting against the motion. The nuclear enrichment programme, which has been limited to enriching uranium to 60% of the level needed to make a nuclear bomb, has been used by Israel’s allies as the justification for the attack in Iran.

An IAEA vote to censure Iran nuclear programme only China and Russia voted againt the montion. 

Nevertheless, the head of the IAEA took issue with the German leadership pointing out that the unprovoked attacks by Israel against Iran’s nuclear facilities are illegal under international law.

“Did anyone tell you sir that “targeted strikes against nuclear facilities” are prohibited under article 56 of the additional protocol to the Geneva Conventions to which Germany is a party, and that the use of force in international relations is generally prohibited in article 2(4) of the

@UN,” Mohamed El Baradei said in a post on social media. “You might want to familiarize yourself with the basic tenets of international law…”

Charter with the exception of the right of self defence in the case of armed attack or upon authorization by the Security Council in the case of collective security action.

India has been more circumspect in condemning the Israel attacks as it continues to follow its policy of “sovereign autonomy,” trying to keep its distance from all sides in the escalating East-West geopolitical tensions.

“Received a phone call from PM @netanyahu of Israel. He briefed me on the evolving situation. I shared India's concerns and emphasized the need for early restoration of peace and stability in the region,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a post on social media.

French President Emmanuel Macron also focused on the existence of Iran’s nuclear programme which has been running since the first nuclear research centre was opened in 1967, as the justification for the Israeli attack. The programme started to cause international concern two and half decades ago with the undeclared Iranian facilities at Natanz and Arak, triggering IAEA inspections and global concerns over potential weaponization.

“France has repeatedly condemned Iran’s ongoing nuclear program and has taken all appropriate diplomatic measures in response. In this context, France reaffirms Israel’s right to defend itself and ensure its security,” Macron said in a statement. “To avoid jeopardizing the stability of the entire region, I call on all parties to exercise maximum restraint and to de-escalate.”