Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to just six vessels on August 10, against a 10-day average of around 11, Reuters reported on August 11, as hopes of a US-Iran peace deal continued to fade.

The drop-off is the latest sign that the world's most important oil chokepoint - through which around a fifth of global oil consumption normally passes - remains effectively choked off five months into the war between Iran, Israel and the US, despite periodic reports of progress toward a negotiated pause.

Four commodity tankers were among the vessels that transited the strait on August 10, shipping data showed, a fraction of normal traffic levels before the conflict escalated.

The squeeze on Gulf shipping is feeding directly into refined-product markets. US and European diesel prices rose sharply on August 10 after attacks on refineries in Russia and Saudi Arabia added to existing supply disruption, Reuters reported, with traders citing tightening middle-distillate supply as the immediate driver.

"By this point, you'd think markets would be largely immune to headlines about a US-Iran deal," analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in an ING note on August 11. "The pattern keeps repeating - initial enthusiasm when negotiations appear promising, only for that optimism to dissipate just as quickly." Oil prices were trading stronger on the latest bout of pessimism, ING said, leaving the market to reprice ongoing supply disruption rather than a near-term resolution.

The strait's closure has become the defining supply-side story of the war, with US strategic reserves themselves now feeling the strain: US strategic petroleum reserves fell below 300mn barrels for the first time since 1983 last week, dropping 6.1mn barrels to 298.7mn, Vedomosti reported on August 11, citing the US Department of Energy data. Washington released 172mn barrels from the reserve in March after Iran first shut Hormuz to shipping, in what officials called the largest single disruption to crude supply in history; a former US State Department energy envoy said enough oil remains in reserve for another release if needed, though a July report to Congress found roughly a quarter of the reserve's storage capacity impaired by equipment failures, with repairs estimated at $230mn.

For now, the strait's near-closure and its knock-on effects across product markets remain a live drag on global energy supply, one that a US-Iran agreement - whenever it eventually materialises - would only partially and gradually unwind.