The removal of Milord Dodik — long the dominant figure in Bosnia’s Serb entity and an advocate of its secession — removes one of the biggest obstacles to Bosnia’s stalled EU accession process and much needed reforms within the country. Yet as the politician seeks to cling onto power in defiance of a Central Election Commission (CEC) decision removing him from his post, the situation is likely to get more unstable in Bosnia before it improves. 

MPs in Republika Srpska have refused to accept the removal of Dodik, the divisive president of Republika Srpska, voting late on August 22 to back a referendum on the issue. The move is unlikely to alter Dodik’s legal status or force Sarajevo to reverse its decisions, but will only deepen the rift between Bosnia’s Serb entity and the country’s central authorities.

In the short term at least, this threatens to further deepen the political crisis in Bosnia, which for over a year has been in the worst crisis since the end of the 1992-95 war. Dodik’s ousting has injected new uncertainty into a fragile political system already paralysed by ethnic divisions. 

Dodik was found guilty of refusing to implement decisions made by Bosnia's top international envoy, High Representative Christian Schmidt, in a historic ruling by the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina on August 1, when it upheld a previous verdict delivered in February. The CEC then formally removed Dodik from his post as president of Republika Srpska six days later. Under Bosnian law, any official sentenced to more than six months automatically loses office. (Dodik’s decision to pay a fine rather than serve the sentence does not alter this.)

The Bosnian Serb leader has vowed to resist, dismissing the decision as illegitimate and promising the referendum that backed by MPs in the Republika Srpska parliament late on August 22.  

Key politicians in Republika Srpska have closed ranks behind Dodik. Radovan Višković, who recently resigned as the entity’s prime minister, described the CEC’s decision as a “continuation of anti-Serb policy” in Bosnia, and claimed it violated the Dayton Agreement that ended the 1992-95 war.

Zeljka Cvijanović, the Serb member of Bosnia’s tripartite presidency and a close Dodik ally, told the parliament session on August 22 that Sarajevo was trying to sideline him. “You want to put someone you can’t beat in the elections in prison,” she told MPs, according to an SNSD statement. She accused state institutions of “terror against citizens” and insisted Republika Srpska “does not accept the dictates of foreigners”. 

Dodik’s defiance risks deepening the crisis at a time when Bosnia’s EU bid is faltering. Candidate status was granted in 2022, but reforms demanded by Brussels remain blocked, and the European Commission has already withheld funding in frustration.

The fear is that removing Dodik may create a dangerous political vacuum, or embolden hardliners to push Republika Srpska further toward secession. Instead of unlocking Bosnia’s EU path, his fall could mark the start of an even more destabilising phase.

Dodik made clear he has no intention of leaving quietly. “The mandate was given to me by the people, and therefore I will listen to them in the referendum about me and the function I perform,” he declared on X (formerly Twitter). 

He accused Schmidt of lacking legitimacy, described the court ruling as unconstitutional, and blamed Bosniak politicians in Sarajevo for pursuing an “anti-Serb agenda” aimed at dismantling Republika Srpska.

“You were arrogant and stubborn, and you expect me to be obedient. I will not be,” he wrote in one X post. “I am the President of the Republika Srpska … I was elected by the people, I will not be replaced by a foreign government!” 

In recent days, Dodik has continued to go about his presidential duties; aside from attending the parliament session on August 22, he was pictured visiting a local furniture factory and a hospital, as well as receiving a delegation from Austria and extolling the benefits of Republika Srpska’s investment climate 

From reformer to hardliner 

Over the last few decades Dodik’s political trajectory has been one of the most dramatic in post-war Bosnia. Initially backed by Western powers in the late 1990s as a pragmatic reformer, he gradually reinvented himself as a hardline nationalist, forging close ties with Moscow and rightwing leaders like European Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. For years, he has repeatedly called for Republika Srpska’s secession to join Serbia – rhetoric that has earned him US and UK sanctions.

In the last couple of years he and fellow Republika Srpska politicians have stepped up their defiance of both Schmidt and key Bosnian central institutions. 

His removal is the most serious challenge yet to his grip on power, but does not yet spell the end of his influence. Dodik remains popular among many Bosnian Serbs, who see him as a defender of their autonomy against pressure from Sarajevo and Western capitals. 

When it comes to Bosnia’s progress on EU accession, Dodik’s departure could, in theory, remove a key barrier to reforms. But the reality is more complex. Bosnia was granted EU candidate status in 2022 but has failed to move forward, unlike its Western Balkan neighbours. In July, the European Commission withheld €108mn in Growth Plan funding after Bosnia failed to submit a joint reform plan. 

A report by Poland’s Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) described Bosnia as “the least prepared EU candidate state”, noting that Dodik had consistently opposed any measures that increased centralisation, particularly those involving the judiciary and Constitutional Court.

The ongoing paralysis risks damaging the economy further, even though some instability is already built into investors’ decisions on Bosnia. 

Rating agency Standard & Poor’s, for example, affirmed Bosnia’s ‘B+/B’ credit rating and stable outlook, saying that despite ongoing internal frictions, including renewed secession threats from Republika Srpska, it considered political disputes will not escalate beyond levels seen earlier this year and the state's core functions will remain intact.

"Bosnia’s governance system remains one of the most complex in the world, and political volatility — particularly involving RS [Republika Srpska] — continues to pose a risk to structural reforms and EU accession progress," the agency said.

In a direct response to Dodik’s moves to pull the Bosnian Serb entity out of state institutions, back in 2022 Germany suspended funding for three investment projects in Republika Srpska. However, in November 2024, Hungary, led by Dodik ally Orban, stepped in to finance them. 

International responses

International reactions reflect Bosnia’s position on geopolitical fault lines. Russia’s embassy in Sarajevo denounced the ruling as a “politicised verdict” driven by the West, warning it endangered Bosnia’s very existence as a state. Both Orban and Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić have met with Dodik since the court verdict in an apparent show of support for the embattled Bosnian Serb leader. 

The European Union, by contrast, has been cautious, wary of escalating the confrontation while still calling for reforms. The bloc has previously struggled to sanction Dodik due to member state Hungary’s opposition to sanctions. The US and UK, on the other hand, have both imposed sanctions on the Bosnian politician. 

British ambassador Julian Reilly wrote on X on August 22: “The Court of BiH, an independent institution, has convicted the former President of Republika Srpska, Mr. Dodik, and that judgment must be respected. Holding a referendum on any court judgment or disrespecting it would be unlawful and would undermine the rule of law and the constitutional order of BiH.” 

This drew Dodik’s ire, and he lashed back on X accusing Reilly of hypocrisy for opposing referendums in Republika Srpska while having allowed the Brexit and Scottish independence votes. “Just because you suffer from a colonial power complex does not mean that the Republic of Srpska agrees to be a colony,” Dodik wrote.

Dodik also notably failed to secure support from Washington, despite doing his best to convince officials of his Trump-loving credentials. 

Opposition voices in Republika Srpska, meanwhile, have criticised Dodik’s nationalist rhetoric, warning that it risks isolating the region further and worsening economic stagnation.

The new political standoff raises the fear that with nothing now to lose a defiant Dodik could open the way for a more destabilising phase. A prolonged power struggle risks paralysing already fragile institutions and fuelling nationalist tensions across the country — leaving the prospects of reforms and eventual EU accession more distant than ever.