Just reading the new US national security strategy.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

It is an absolutely incredible read.

Just focusing here on the bit about Europe but it’s clear that Trump puts most of the ills of the continent on the EU - for eroding national sovereignty. The language used in the texts is equally extraordinary, talking about the “healthy” nations of Central and Eastern Europe - not sure in what sense he means healthy, it’s open to imagination.

But as a fairly typical Eurosceptic Brit - but who voted Remain (I recognised that Brexit was an economic catastrophe for the UK - unlike the HMT and BOE who went MIA on the biggest decision the UK has faced for generations) I can assure Trump that the biggest win for the EU has been in bringing peace and stability across the continent for decades.

I would not rely too much here on sovereign nations and national identity or the “character” of European nations he refers to - those same things ensured two devastating world wars, the rise of fascism, communism and tens, if not hundreds, of millions of deaths. EU accession has forced countries to put to the side territorial disputes and national dislikes and grievances for the common good. There have been failures - the wars for Yugoslav succession, and the war in Ukraine. But I think things would have been far worse without the EU and its accession process.

It seems also that this is a call to arms by Trump for like-minded far right parties and movements - again, an extraordinary challenge for mainstream political parties in Europe and I still think mainstream political opinion in Europe. Now the likes of the AfD, Reform in the UK and FN in France are on the rise but they still poll less than two fifths of support.

I worry not only that this document is a US declaration of war almost on the EU but it also signals that Trump has more in common now with Putin’s sovereign democratic view of the world. That would suggest that Trump wants a peace in Ukraine at any cost - a giveaway to Putin - which would have devastating consequences for European peace, stability and prosperity. That peace would likely leave Ukraine unstable and subject to further attack by Russia. Eventually Ukraine might fall to Russian pressure meaning tens of millions of Ukrainians moving West, causing political, social and economic instability in Europe and playing to the anti-immigration agenda of those very same far right pro MAGA parties in Europe. Is a sellout of Ukraine, by Trump to Russia, part of Trump’s agenda to weaken Europe and the EU? Possibly. This all looks very existential to Europe. I would imagine European national security teams are in crisis mode as I write these words.

Timothy Ash, the senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London. This comment first appeared in a substack post here.