Kazakhstan’s service sector saw a sharper downturn in November compared to the previous month, according to the latest Freedom Holding and S&P Global PMI survey. 

New business growth slowed and reached its weakest level since March, although the survey recorded some stabilising signs in employment and a slight improvement in business confidence.

The headline indicator—the Business Activity Index—tracks monthly changes in service sector output on a 0–100 scale, with readings above 50 signalling expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. The index is seasonally adjusted. In November, the index slipped further below the 50.0 threshold, falling to 48.7 from 49.3 in October. This indicates a modest but increasingly pronounced decline in activity, marking the sharpest contraction since August 2024.

Yerlan Abdikarimov, director of the financial analysis department at Freedom Finance Global, commented: "November saw another fall in overall business activity in the services sector, following the unusually strong optimism observed for much of the year. This may indicate the emergence of systemic problems in the industry.

"The main pressure is coming from new orders – their growth has been steadily cooling, and companies are responding with cautious employment management. Rising costs due to logistical delays at the Russian border are creating additional price pressure and keeping services inflation high.

"Despite businesses' attempts to pass costs on to prices, demand is not yet capable of returning the sector to sustainable growth. Businesses are hoping for improved demand in the year-ahead forecast, but uncertainty surrounding new tax rules is limiting companies' willingness to actively expand."