The unrecognised pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria in Moldova is holding parliamentary elections on November 30 with no genuine political competition, as the territory faces a severe economic crisis following Russia’s withdrawal of financial support.

With single candidates in 21 of the 33 constituencies and only two candidates in the remaining 12, the Obnovlenie party — the political vehicle of Sheriff holding — is expected to maintain its dominance.

As Moldova advances towards European Union membership, the future of Transnistria remains uncertain. Authorities in Chisinau hope for economic diplomacy to bring Transnistria closer, but they have not ruled out a gradual accession scenario with the separatist region remaining out of the EU in a first stage.

Viktor Gushan's Sheriff holding thus faces a defining choice: either stay aligned with Russia, preserving the current separatist structure but risking economic collapse as Moscow’s support wanes (unless Transnistria takes a more decisive stance against Chisinau), or negotiate with Chisinau, accepting the legalisation of part of Sheriff’s vast assets within Moldova in exchange for stability and access to the benefits of Moldova’s EU accession process, European Pravda commented in a column published in October by editor Serhiy Sydorenko. The November 30 elections are unlikely to indicate further steps in this regard.

Obnovlenie has controlled Transnistria’s parliament since 2005 and held 29 of the 33 seats in the previous legislature, with the remaining four MPs serving as independents.

The region operates under a presidential system, with President Vadim Krasnoselsky in office since December 2016. Backed by Sheriff, Krasnoselsky replaced former president Yevgeny Shevchuk, who was later sentenced in absentia to 16 years in prison for embezzlement.

The parliamentary elections are therefore not expected to alter the governance structure of Transnistria, which continues to experience deepening economic difficulties and worsening human rights conditions. October saw further restrictive measures and violations of fundamental rights, according to a monitoring report by the Promo-LEX Association cited by Cotidianul.md.

The report noted that the electoral process, controlled by the Obnovlenie party and Sheriff, is taking place “in a context devoid of real opposition, without independent observers and outside the control of [Chisinau] constitutional authorities,” with most candidates directly or indirectly affiliated with the holding.

The socio-economic and energy situation remains critical, marked by a severe budget deficit, high inflation of 12.7% in September, and a renewed gas crisis that has disrupted public services and reduced residents’ living standards.

Militarisation and alignment of the education system with the Russian Federation continue through the replacement of textbooks, the introduction of Russian curricula, and the involvement of young people in military activities, museum visits, competitions, and sports clubs that promote military roles. Tiraspol State University is reported to encourage loyalty to Russian power centres and Transnistrian “statehood”.

Propaganda and official narratives promote the concept of a “community of the Transnistrian people” and justify exceptional measures through appeals to “anti-fascism” and a sense of “siege”. According to the report, the regime claims that the region is threatened by Chisinau and the West, reinforcing efforts to mobilise the population.