Civil unrest risks across the Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia region (CEECA) have risen sharply over the past year, led by mounting political instability, simmering corruption allegations and inflation-linked discontent in the Balkans and Central Asia, according to a new report from risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.

“According to our Civil Unrest (forecast) Index, the Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia (CEECA) region has chalked up a significant increase in civil unrest risk over the past year,” said Mario Bikarski, Senior Europe & Central Asia analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, in comments emailed to bne IntelliNews. 

“The region still presents lower exposure to unrest than Western Europe – the worst performing region on the index – but the trend is unmistakably negative.”

The company’s global study warns that governments, companies and insurers should brace for “more frequent disruptive protests and riots in 2026” as political polarisation, pressure on public finances and social media dynamics amplify unrest. Protest activity globally has risen over the past two years, with commercial property increasingly targeted, causing “hundreds of millions of dollars in damages and business interruption,” the report said.

Regional deterioration

Eight of the 10 European and Central Asian countries that saw the steepest deteriorations in civil unrest risk in 2025 are in CEECA, with the biggest increases concentrated in the Balkans and Central Asia, Bikarski said.

“Political instability, allegations of widespread corruption and a lingering cost-of-living crisis in Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria suggests that these countries are facing a restive period,” he said.

Serbia stands out as “one of the riskiest countries in Europe from a civil unrest perspective,” he added. “Over the past 12 months, Serbia had the fifth-highest average protest size in Europe and Central Asia, despite having a comparatively small population of under 7mn.” Politicians’ failure to address long-standing grievances risks a “regional contagion” as discontent spills across the Balkans, he warned.

Georgia, which has been wracked by daily protests for over a year, is also emerging as a persistent flashpoint. “Georgia stands out as another country where persistent anti-government protests have continued for over a year now,” he said. Verisk Maplecroft data shows Georgia recorded the tenth-largest increase in civil unrest risk globally in 2025. 

“The government has largely ignored the demands of protesters and is instead pursuing a strategy of containment and business-as-usual,” Bikarski said. “This will ensure that protests, including occasionally violent clashes with law enforcement, will remain a feature of the political landscape for as long as Georgian Dream remains in power.”

In Central Asia, labour disputes and inflation pressures are fuelling unrest despite tight government controls. “A recent history of strikes and disruptive unrest is pushing up risk in Central Asian countries,” Bikarski said. “Despite governments’ efforts to suppress dissent, urban residents and those working in critical industries are becoming increasingly sensitive to inflation and labour conditions.”

In Kazakhstan’s oil-producing Mangystau region alone, 11 strikes have been registered this year, he noted, with authorities monitoring 1,800 enterprises for their "high risk of social discontent".

While violent protests remain relatively rare in CEECA – riots accounted for around 2% of events in 2025 – the risk profile is worsening. “Similarly to the broader civil unrest trend, the risk of riots has increased, with incidents jumping by two-thirds from a year earlier,” Bikarski said.

Bulgaria faces budget turbulence 

Bulgaria illustrates how economic, political and governance pressures combine to raise unrest risks.

“In response to the protests, the government has announced it will revise the state budget, likely extending the deadline into next year,” Bikarski said. “This will create financial uncertainty from January, while coinciding with the country’s scheduled adoption of the euro.”

While the delayed 2025 budget “will not necessarily lead to economic problems,” he said, “it will limit the government’s ability to respond to potential shocks.”

The revision process will be fraught. “The process of redoing the budget will be rocky with increased scrutiny from unions, business groups and the public,” he said. “There is broad consensus about the need for fiscal prudence, however, repeated attempts to increase taxes are likely to inflame social tensions further.”

Even if the budget passes, concerns about governance are unlikely to ease. “Public concerns about large-scale corruption and the influence of Peevski within the government will persist,” Bikarski said. “This will ensure that the government remains unpopular, particularly with the younger urban electorate.”

Although most protests in Bulgaria are peaceful, “violent groups can still cause disruption and damages, mainly in central Sofia, as evidenced by the December 1 clashes with police,” he said.

With the country governed by a fragile coalition, “increased public pressure could very well cause the collapse of the cabinet and another snap vote – which would be the eighth election since 2021,” he warned. 

Bulgaria is the world’s second-worst performer on Verisk Maplecroft’s Government Change Index, indicating “a very high risk of a change of the executive over the next 12 months.” Another election amid fiscal uncertainty “would not bode well for investor confidence” and could undermine the benefits of joining the euro area, he added.

Global pressures intensify

While CEECA is trending sharply higher, Western Europe and the United States remain the highest-risk regions overall. Seven of the world’s largest economies rank among the most exposed to disruption, with Germany, France, Spain, Italy and the UK all in the top tier of risk.

Europe is now the “worst-performing region globally” on the Civil Unrest Index, the report said. Protests are increasing in size and causing more damage, while rising defence spending and economic headwinds are tightening government budgets. “Mounting economic pressure will increase poverty and social inequality, both of which are drivers of civil unrest,” the report warned.

France has seen some of the most dramatic episodes: protests against spending cuts drew an estimated 195,000 people in early October. In the UK and Germany, demonstrations calling for tighter immigration controls have exceeded 100,000 participants, while similar protests in Spain and the Netherlands have turned violent.

The US recorded the sharpest rise in protest size globally over the past year – from an average of 172,000 people at the end of 2024 to nearly 700,000 twelve months later.

Torbjorn Soltvedt, associate director of political violence at Verisk Maplecroft, said 2026 is set to be more turbulent than the current year. “Based on the frequency and intensity of protests and the underlying factors that drive unrest… we expect next year to be more disruptive than 2025,” he said.

Damage becomes costly 

Globally, 90% of protests remain peaceful and only about 1% involve direct damage to property, but these numbers are trending up. Fifty-three countries saw a rise in attacks on commercial property, with Germany, Spain, Mexico, India and Kenya among the worst affected.

Indonesia and Nepal exemplified the rising financial cost of unrest: rioting in Indonesia in August is expected to generate over $50mn in insured losses, while the cost of Nepal’s protests this year is projected to rival the £200mn in claims after the 2015 earthquake.

Corruption is a common trigger in the wave of “Gen Z protests” seen globally in 2025, the report noted, while social media is accelerating mobilisation and intensifying outbreaks.

“With political polarisation rising, and the increasing ability of social media to intensify protests, the likelihood of major episodes of unrest across the world is rising,” Soltvedt said. Businesses and insurers must distinguish between “temporary flashpoints and more structural long-term civil unrest risks,” he added.