Turkey’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation officially moved down to 31.07% y/y in November from 32.87% y/y in October, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK, or TurkStat) said on December 3.

Official inflation stood at 44% y/y at end-2024. It stayed at around 33% between July and October.

It is not advisable to plan, price or draw inferences based on TUIK data. There is widespread concern about the reliability of Turkey’s official data series.

Chart: Turkey is set to fail to release an end-2025 figure at below the 30%-level.

Argentina and Haiti awaited

At 31%, Turkey dropped in behind Argentina, yet to release its November data, in the world inflation league to stand at sixth place. Haiti currently stands fourth with latest announced (September) inflation of 31.9%, followed by Argentina with October inflation of 31.3%.

Turkey could find itself in fourth place following the upcoming inflation releases from its rivals.

Month on month shock

TUIK also posted a monthly official inflation figure of 0.87% for November after releasing 2.55% for October, 3.23% for September, 2.04% for August, 2.06% for July, 1.37% for June, 1.53% for May and 3.00% for April.

Tweet from Mahfi Egilmez (@mahfiegilmez), a former head of Turkey’s Treasury.

TUIK on duty

Despite the helpful input of the TUIK, which critics say opts to release favourable figures at the expense of what's left of its diminished and flimsy credibility, and the global disinflation period abroad, Turkey’s central bank has failed once again in reaching its own stated goals.

The authority anticipated that the seasonally-adjusted monthly inflation figures would fall below the 1.5%-level starting from 3Q25 and end the year at a little above the 1%-level.

The TUIK, meanwhile, released average seasonally-adjusted monthly inflation of 2.62% for 3Q25. The October release came in at 2.07%.

The November figure, which will be released on December 4, is due to suggest a sharp nosedive. It will come in at a point even lower than the central bank’s “a little above the 1%-level” target.

Still above 30% at end-2025

In response to the November release, Turkey’s finance minister Mehmet Simsek (@memetsimsek) wrote on X that another “moderate” figure can be expected for December.

If TUIK releases official monthly inflation of 0.02% for December, end-2025 annual inflation will be posted at 30%.

On November 7, Turkey’s central bank raised its end-2025 official inflation "forecast" range to 31-33% in its latest quarterly inflation report from the previously stated range of 25-29% that was provided in an August report.

With the January 2026 data, the TUIK will change the base year in its official CPI series to 2025 from 2003. The revision will most probably solve the "above-30%" deadlock.

Above 20% at end-2026

On February 12, the central bank will release its next quarterly inflation report, the first such report of 2026. It will include updated forecasts.

For end-2026, the authority’s “forecast range” remains unchanged at 13-19%, with the “interim target” standing at 16%.

In the February report, an upgrade is not expected for the end-2026 numbers, while it is almost certain that they will move up across the year.

As things stand, the realisation is supposed to come in at above the 20%-level.

December 11 to bring year’s final rate cut

On October 23, the monetary policy committee (MPC) of the central bank cut its main policy rate (one-week repo) by 100 bp to 39.5%. 

On December 11, the authority will hold its last rate-setting meeting of the year. Another rate cut is a near certainty. Uncertainty, however, abounds as to the likely size of the cut.

As things stand, a cut of up to 300 bp would be no surprise. With the November inflation release, average market expectations will move up to 150-200bp from the previous 100-150bp.

The USD/TRY pair remains under control. Turkish borrowers’ eurobond auctions remained strong. Turkey’s five-year credit default swaps (CDS) have fallen below the 250-level. On the loans side, high debt rollover rates and low costs are observed.

After a local court dropped the case targeting the headquarters of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) on October 24, political stress that was bugging the finance industry dissolved.