Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy arrived in Turkey on July 7 for the Nato summit where he said he will discuss the supply of badly needed Patriot missiles and boosting Ukraine’s air defences.

"We expect a strong and productive Nato Summit. Decisions are needed now that will provide greater protection for our people, more capabilities for our defence, and even stronger security cooperation between Ukraine, Europe, and the United States," Zelenskiy said on X.

Both sides have escalated their drone and missile exchanges this year, with the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) relentlessly targeting Russia’s oil refineries and oil terminals. Russia has responded with massive missile barrages against military, industrial and residential targets.

In the last weeks Kyiv in particular has come under heavy fire. Ukraine has been running low on interceptor missiles and it is increasingly vulnerable to missile attacks where Russia has the overwhelming advantage. The issue of air defences is becoming acute as winter approaches where it is widely expected that Russian President Vladimir Putin will attempt to freeze Ukraine into submission again after last winter’s campaign to destroy what is left of its power generating capacity.

Drone wall

Air defences are also a pressing issue for European Nato as it is also vulnerable to Russian drone and missile attacks. Russia is currently producing an estimated seven million drones a year, and has already probed Europe’s defences with a drone incursion into Poland last September that showed Poland is largely defenseless against Russian drone swarms.

Russia is producing an estimated 7-9mn drones a year of all types, and the same number of warheads. Production continues to increase rapidly at its drone factory in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan where it is producing ever more sophisticated models like the jet powered Geran-5 that can evade Ukraine’s new interceptor drones. Intelligence estimates suggest Russia's output could rise from around 140 long-range strike drones per day at the start of the year to 450–500 per day by the end of 2026, if expansion continues.

By contrast, Europe is producing a few hundreds of thousands of drones a year at most across the entire continent and remains largely unprotected against mass swarms of Russian drones should it attack.

The European Commission has acknowledged that EU production remains a fraction of Russia’s level and has launched emergency programmes aimed at scaling output into the millions annually over the coming years.

There are plans to build a “Drone Wall” on Europe’s eastern flank, but these have not passed the planning stage.

The concept was first proposed by the Baltic states and Poland after repeated Russian drone and missile incursions into Nato airspace. It aims to detect, identify, track and, where necessary, destroy hostile drones before they penetrate European airspace.

Zelenskiy has been arguing that Ukraine’s drone manufacturing capacity of some 7mn drones a year has become essential for Europe’s defence.

Battle in the clouds

“Europe needs its own effective anti-ballistic system” Zelenskiy told the Nato delegates, adding that ballistic missiles remain "Russia's last major advantage."

“The need for affordable, mass-produced anti-ballistic systems cannot wait until 2030 or beyond. It needs to be met as soon as possible, in fact, today,” he added. Ukraine has stopped Russia on land and at sea, but the decisive battle is now moving to the sky, Zelenskiy said.

To make the point, Kyiv has ramped up its drone war on Russia in the run up to the summit, deploying its new medium- and long-range drones. In the days before the summit started Ukrainian drones have struck Russia's Saratov Oil Refinery, Tatarstan petrochemical plant and the Omsk refinery – the last big refinery in Russia that has not been hit by a Ukrainian drone.

Zelenskiy also threatened large-scale attacks on Moscow and St Petersburg using the new systems, which could change Putin’s calculations and increase pressure inside the Kremlin that is already suffering from tensions between the doves and the hawks that want to end the conflict.

“When thousands of drones fly there, Putin’s advisers will urge him to move beyond the Urals,” Zelenskiy said. “The further Putin is from Moscow, the closer the end of the war will be.”

Improving air defences is not only a priority for Ukraine; it is also a priority for Europe, which is planning to create a Euro Nato now that the US has downgraded its commitment to protecting Europe as part of its new National Security Strategy (NSS) released in December.

At the summit, it was announced that Nato will launch a $40bn Drone Edge initiative to counter drones. Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte said at the Alliance's Defence Industry Forum in Ankara that, given the experience of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the Alliance must expand its capabilities to detect, identify, and neutralize drones that could invade Allied airspace. As part of the project, Nato member states will invest $40bn in counter-drone capabilities over the next five years.

Ukraine hopes to conclude drone deals with seven Nato countries by the end of the year and has already signed drone deals with six countries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Azerbaijan, Latvia, and Lithuania. Now Kyiv's main attention will be focused on Nato partners, in particular those located closer to Russia or Ukraine and forced to pay increasing attention to protection against drones.

Bankova recently passed laws allowing for limited exports of arms, including drones, to help its partners and raise additional funds for development and boosting production.

Trump back on board?

As the Gulf war moves towards a fragile ceasefire, the White House appears to have refocused on trying to bring the Ukraine conflict to an end. Zelenskiy said US President Donald Trump has positively assessed Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign during a phone call on the eve of the summit, saying Ukraine is “doing very well.”

Trump arrived in Ankara on July 7 and is due to meet Zelenskiy today.

Trump said in comments before boarding Air Force One that Zelenskiy and Putin both “want to make a deal” after speaking to both leaders by phone.

"I had a very good talk with President Putin... We had a long talk yesterday. It lasted a long time. And I also spoke with President Zelenskiy right after that. I think they both want to make a deal. It's too bad it took so long. But I think there's something," Trump said.

According to Zelenskiy, Trump is beginning to view the war from a different perspective, as he tends to side with success — a factor also linked to his political position and the approaching elections. Ukraine’s long-range strikes on Russian territory have also received support from Nato leaders.

The White House pressured the European Nato members to increase their defence spending to 5% of GDP at the Nato summit in the Hague last year – a target many are likely to miss. Trump is also due to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and says he will remove sanctions on Turkey after it decided to by the Russian S-400 air defence system, but later cancelled the order.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign has changed US strategic thinking about the war and strengthened Kyiv’s negotiating position.

Bankova is generally more upbeat about its prospects as it brings the war home to regular Russians who are now suffering from a country-wide fuel crisis. The active phase of Russia’s war against Ukraine could end in 2026, Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence Directorate, says, although Moscow has not yet shown readiness for genuine dialogue.

According to Budanov, the war has entered a phase of active escalation, which typically peaks before moving toward de-escalation. During this stage dialogue becomes possible if both sides are interested.

“There are chances of ending the active phase of the war in 2026,” Budanov said. He added that Russia is not yet ready for negotiations but argued that at some point Moscow “will become interested.” Budanov also did not rule out that the “window of opportunity” to end the war could be linked to the US elections in November, although he stressed that this is not the decisive factor.

Europe has been pushing for talks with the Kremlin but has not been able to find a suitable interlocutor. Rutte admitted that the chance for talks to resume remain vague. Earlier this month Zelenskiy gave Putin 40 days to respond or face the consequences, suggesting he is hoping to resume talks in August. In Eastern Europe it is widely believed that the soul only leaves a dead body after 40 days. Rutte emphasized that any peace process requires two sides.

“Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the President of Ukraine, is ready to sit down at the negotiating table with Putin in any format to resolve this terrible war. And, obviously, Putin has refused to join him so far,” Rutte said.

Battlefield pressure

As diplomats meet to make defence plans, the brutal war continues on the battlefield. Despite the upbeat reporting of a “turning point,” the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) is slowly losing control of key cities in the Donbas.

A battle for control of the fortress city of Kostiantynivka is raging, which Putin claims is already under Russian control. The city is one of three that make up the backbone of the so-called Fortress Belt in the Donbas. According to open source milbloggers, Russian forces have penetrated most of the city but are facing fierce resistance from AFU units in the city and constant drone attacks. Capturing the rest of the Donbas is Putin’s primary war goal.

According to reports, the fighting is similar to the battle of Pokrovsk that fell to the Russian forces at the end of last year after months of bloody street fighting. The Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) penetrated the city in small groups and slowly took over control of the city, street by street. However, they struggled to fully control Pokrovsk, plagued by constant drone attacks that made patrolling the city lethally dangerous. That battle cost the AFR around 200,000 dead and wounded according to experts and the estimates for losses in the battle for Kostiantynivka are expected to be higher; currently Russia is losing more than 30,000 men a month, according to intelligence services, more than it is recruiting through its volunteer programme. Ukraine’s losses are at least a third less than Russia’s but it is also under extreme manpower shortages pressure.

Nato does not believe Russia will seize the rest of Donbas by the end of 2027, according to Rutte. The rate of the Russian advance has decreased by 75% and the Russians lack the personnel to gain a foothold in the captured territories and hold them, so the Ukrainians can defend themselves for a long time.