Finnish President Alexander Stubb has put himself forward to represent the EU in possible ceasefire talks with Russia now the US has fully withdrawn from the process, but immediately ruled out any talks starting unless Russia agreed to a full ceasefire in Ukraine.

This position is a return to the hard line position Ukraine and its European allies adopted at the London conference last April, and was immediately rejected by the Kremlin, which has rejected any talk to ceasefire and insisted on a longer more difficult process of reaching a lasting peace deal, which presumably includes territorial concessions from Ukraine in the Donbas.

Stubb said that he doesn’t rule out that Europe may engage in dialogue with Russia already this year, but if he sticks to an insistence on a ceasefire as a prelude to any talks, the Kremlin is almost certain to refuse.

"I can imagine that Europe will engage in dialogue with Russia this or that way this year. However, it is impossible to say right now when this happens," Stubb said, answering questions from the audience of the Yle broadcaster on May 24.

When asked whether he can act as a mediator, he said that if he is asked, "it will probably be difficult to say ‘no’."

Stubb’s name has come up as one of several candidates for a European mediator at potential talks with Moscow. Other candidates include former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and Stubb’s predecessor as Finnish president Sauli Niinistö. Angela Merkel’s name was also put forward, but she has already said no and recommended someone active in service. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier is also considered to be a possible candidate.

The discussion on finding a European mediator began after president Vladimir Putin said in a press conference following the  Victory Day parade that the end of the war in Ukraine was “close” and suggested he was open to talking to an EU representative, suggesting someone like his old friend and former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who is widely seen as a Russian stodge after he went to work for Gazprom after he left office. However, Putin also said that the Kremlin would not deal with anyone that has been “spitting insults at us.” That immediately ruled out one obvious candidate – the head of the European Commission foreign policy Kaja Kallas, who has been extremely critical of Russia.

It seems that the Kremlin will have the same objections to Stubb: commenting on his candidature, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova noted that the Finnish leader “tops the list of Western elites’ representatives who use the language of hatred when speaking about Russia.”

Stubb is a proponent of continuing the war and says Ukraine is in its “best military position of the war thanks to ‘math’” — one Ukrainian soldier lost for every eight Russians.

Western analysts have pointed to Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) gains on the battlefield and an apparent slowing of Russian advances since the start of this year. But these are still counted in a few hundred kilometres at best and the Armed Force of Russia (AFR) remains firmly in control of around 20% of Ukrainian territory.

Moreover, the relative disparity in the size of the population of the two countries means Russia can sustain considerably higher casualty losses than Ukraine for longer.

“I seriously doubt both this approach and the numbers; and the strategy is far from winning or even realistic. Russia has 143mn people. Ukraine’s population has collapsed dramatically — from over 40mn pre-war to roughly 25mn or even lower today, with more than 10mn refugees abroad, heavy civilian deaths, and the country bleeding out demographically in a brutal war of attrition,” former Ukrainian presidential press spokesperson Iulia Mendel said in a post. “Raw kill ratios (especially obviously dubious) ignore the hard truth of sustainability and the vastly different sizes of our nations.”