Ukraine has sharply escalated pressure on Belarus, switching from a cautious policy of appeasement to try and split Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko off from Russian President Vladimir Putin to an aggressively coercive policy of threats and ultimatums – a fundamental shift in Kyiv's strategy towards Moscow's closest military ally.

After more than four years of carefully avoiding direct confrontation with Minsk, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned Belarus on June 19 that it had one week to dismantle radio relay equipment allegedly being used to support Russian drone and missile attacks against Ukraine, “or we will do it ourselves,” Zelenskiy said.

The warning and overt threat of military action on Belarusian territory marked a radical departure from Kyiv's previous policy of treating Belarus as an unwilling accomplice rather than an active participant in Russia's invasion.

Moreover, while Zelenskiy scrupulously avoided mentioning them, given Ukraine’s escalating drone strikes on Russia’s refineries, with the change in direction, Bankova is implicitly threatening to bomb Belarus’ two modern refineries – a major source of income for the small country. As IntelliNews reported, thanks to an escalating fuel crisis, Russia has started to import Belarusian petrol to bolster dwindling supplies. In theory that makes the two refineries (Mozyr and Naftan plants) legitimate military targets.

Zelenskiy threats place Lukashenko in an increasingly uncomfortable position, forcing him to choose between complying with Ukrainian demands or risking further dependence on the Kremlin. With the signal repeaters, Lukashenko caved in and turned them off. But in an apparent reaction he was called to Moscow on June 27 for an unscheduled two day meeting with Putin at Valdai where no read out was issued and few photos released. Reportedly Lukashenko is due to fly to Asia on June 29.

There is only speculation as to the content of the talks, but Putin has been pressuring Lukashenko to play an expanded role in the Ukraine war, giving Russian forces more access to Belarusian territory and permission to openly launch drone attacks on Ukrainian soil. The Belarusian border is only about 70km from Kyiv, well within all of Russia’s drone range.

 

 

"The relay stations are a direct support. Turn it off, take it down, and show us that it's been taken down. Since this has been communicated to (Belarus) repeatedly, we've reached the stage of issuing a public warning. If they don't take it down, we'll take them down," Zelenskiy said last week.

He added that Kyiv's demands extended beyond the communications infrastructure.

"Likewise, we're sending a message: please stop supplying fuel to the Russian army. There are no threats here. We're simply saying that we see this. The first steps are always behind the scenes, but the next steps are different."

So far, Lukashenko is backing down. On June 24, Zelenskiy announced that Ukrainian intelligence believed the relay stations had stopped operating.

"According to the information I received (…) the equipment stopped operating on the Belarusian territory as of June 22," Zelenskiy said. "Whether it has been dismantled or not, I honestly don't know yet."

Over the past year Ukraine has systematically attacked Russian oil refineries, fuel depots and logistics hubs, severely disrupting Russia's domestic fuel market. Similar strikes on Belarus's two major refineries could deprive Minsk of one of its most valuable economic assets while simultaneously disrupting fuel supplies to Russia.

That leaves Lukashenko between a rock and a hard place. Belarus has become almost entirely dependent on Russian financial and military backing which is indispensable to Lukashenko's survival since Belarus's disputed 2020 presidential election and the subsequent crackdown on protests.

From quiet diplomacy to open coercion

Analysts say the significance extends well beyond a handful of communications stations.

"We see that Ukraine, instead of appeasing Lukashenko as it did before, decided to act the opposite way and started threatening from the other side. And it's obvious that the Ukrainian threats have become a more significant factor for Lukashenko than any arguments from Russia," Yuriy Panchenko of European Pravda told the Kyiv Independent.

Rather than seeking small tactical concessions, Kyiv appears to be pursuing a much broader objective.

"Ukraine is seeking not tactical concessions, but an actual end to Belarus's military cooperation with Russia," Panchenko said.

The changing tone reflects Ukraine's growing confidence after months of increasingly successful long-range drone strikes deep inside Russia. Ukrainian attacks have repeatedly targeted oil refineries, fuel storage facilities and logistics infrastructure hundreds of kilometres from the front line, creating periodic fuel shortages across parts of Russia.

Exports of Belarusian gasoline to Russia have surged this year as Ukraine's attacks disrupted Russian refining capacity. According to industry data, sales of Belarusian gasoline through the St Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange increased 26-fold in May compared with a year earlier, while deliveries of jet fuel also rose sharply. Russian production of oil products has been reduced by a reported 13.5% so the Belarusian deliveries go someway to covering the shortfall.

But the absence of an explicit threat against Belarusian refineries in Zelenskiy's remarks was notable, Panchenko argued as it provides Lukashenko with leverage in his own discussions with Moscow, which can ill afford further disruptions to fuel supplies while Ukrainian strikes continue to hit Russian energy infrastructure.

Despite allowing Russian forces to launch the February 2022 invasion from Belarusian territory, Lukashenko has consistently stopped short of committing Belarusian troops directly to the war. At the same time he has been trying to distance himself from the Kremlin and has been flirting with the White House, to buy some leverage and sanctions relief in exchange for releasing hundreds of political prisoners.

He has repeatedly insisted that Belarus does not want to fight Ukraine, even as Minsk has continued hosting Russian military facilities, conducting joint exercises, permitting Russian forces to use its territory and expanding military infrastructure along the Ukrainian border.

Following Zelenskiy's warning, Lukashenko responded by accusing Ukraine of attempting to drag Belarus into the conflict.

"I told them bluntly: 'Guys, tell your president: if he thinks he can talk to us like that — and drag us into a war to boot — then he needs to understand that the nature of the war would change instantly,'" Lukashenko said, while adding that Belarus had no desire to fight Ukrainians.

The Kremlin, meanwhile, denied reports that it was pressuring Minsk to expand its military role in the conflict, describing Belarus as Russia's "closest ally".

Military pressure continues

The diplomatic confrontation comes as Ukraine grows increasingly concerned about renewed military activity inside Belarus.

This week Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha highlighted continuing mobilisation exercises in Belarus's Hrodna region, describing them as part of a broader campaign of intimidation.

"While officially categorized as routine data verification, these actions serve as a tactic of intimidation toward neighboring states," Sybiha wrote on X, arguing that Minsk's actions align closely with Kremlin interests and amount to political blackmail, The Kyiv Independent reports.

According to the Belarusian opposition monitoring group BelPol, however, the exercises are intended less to prepare for an offensive against Ukraine than to reinforce internal discipline within Belarus's own armed forces, The Kyiv Independent reports.

BelPol argues the drills serve as a stress test to ensure military units would obey orders during any future domestic unrest — a lingering concern after the 2020 protests, when some members of the security services reportedly refused to carry out instructions against demonstrators.

Taken together, the developments suggest Kyiv has concluded that four years of caution have yielded few strategic benefits.

As the Kyiv Independent concluded in a recent analysis: "While direct strikes on Belarus remain a red line, Ukraine's approach to the Lukashenko regime has shifted 180 degrees. After four years of prioritizing caution to avoid escalation, Kyiv has moved to a strategy of open confrontation and ultimatum-based pressure."

Whether that pressure ultimately succeeds in loosening Belarus's military ties with Moscow remains uncertain. But Ukraine has made clear that Minsk will no longer be treated as merely a passive bystander in Russia's war. Instead, it increasingly faces the prospect of paying a direct price for enabling the Kremlin's military campaign.