The World Bank has revised upwards its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2019 from 3.4% year-on-year to 3.6% y/y, World Bank Senior Economist Anastasia Golovach said on November 19.
Ukraine's GDP grew by 4.2% y/y in July-September, which is higher that expected by the nation's central bank.According to the state statistics service Ukrstat, the growth rate stood at 4.6% y/y in the second quarter, at 2.5% y/y in the first quarter.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimated recently the nation's GDP growth at 3.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2019, according to the NBU's inflation report published last week. According to the NBU's forecast, the growth of Ukraine's GDP in the fourth quarter of 2019 will be 3.3% y/y.
In October, the regulator revised its economic growth forecast upwards, to 3.5% y/y in 2019 and 2020 and 4% y/y in 2021. "The revision was driven by the sustained domestic demand, higher productivity in agricultural production, and improved consumer sentiment. In the meantime, slower growth in the global economy and worsened terms of trade will weigh on economic growth in 2020," the central bank's statement reads.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) believes that Ukraine’s economy remained resilient to political factors but the pace of growth will stay "somewhat modest", with a 3.3% y/y growth in 2019.
The country’s GDP growth will accelerate slightly to 3.5% y/y in 2020, according to the EBRD's Regional Economic Prospects report published on November 6. The booming construction sector and strong real growth in disposable income were among the factors that helped Ukraine weather the turmoil caused by political developments and ongoing geopolitical instability, according to the report.