Uzbekistan forecasts 2024 state budget deficit at 4% of GDP

By Muzaffar Ismailov in Tashkent November 7, 2023

Uzbekistan’s state budget deficit is set to amount to $4.2bn, equivalent to 4% of GDP, in 2024, according to the draft fiscal framework drawn up by the country’s economy and finance ministry for next year.

The forecast is based on the consolidated revenues and expenditures of the state budget, the development fund and 18 extra-budgetary funds. The deficit will arguably come in lower than this year’s deficit, expected to reach at least 5% of GDP. Initially, the headline deficit for 2023 was forecast at 3%.

In 2024, state budget revenues are expected to amount to $21.9bn, and expenditures $22.7bn.

The government anticipates that the economy will expand by 5.6%-5.8% in 2024. The figure is in line with the forecasting of the major international financial institutions (IFIs).

Industrial production (growth forecast by government: 6%), services (6.1%) and agriculture (4%) will help to drive growth in 2024.

The economy and finance ministry stressed its commitment to maintaining the external debt at the “safe level” of 60% of GDP, with a reduction to 50% of GDP in the medium term.

The maximum permitted volume of external borrowings will be $5bn.

Half of this amount will be used to support the state budget. The other half will be ploughed into financing investment projects.

To diversify the public debt portfolio and reduce currency risks, the limited net volume of government bonds will be set at $2bn.

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