Ukraine's central bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 15% until the first quarter of 2027, analysts said, as persistent inflationary pressures outweigh signs of temporary price relief and reinforce the case for a cautious monetary policy, reported Ukraine Business News.

Analysts at investment group ICU said a sharper-than-expected seasonal decline in prices for some food products in June had reduced the scope for further price falls during July and August, limiting the disinflationary effect usually seen over the summer.

"Further acceleration in prices for a number of important goods and services, as well as an increase in the core consumer price index, signal the persistence of elevated inflationary pressure," ICU said in a research note.

The analysts noted that the secondary effects of higher fuel prices became fully apparent in April and June, adding to broader inflationary pressures across the economy. Those effects are unlikely to fade quickly, even if international energy prices retreat, they said, while warning that such a scenario has become less probable amid renewed geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.

A weaker hryvnia would add further upward pressure to consumer prices by increasing the cost of imported goods, analysts said.

Against that backdrop, ICU expects annual inflation to remain volatile during the second half of 2026 and most likely exceed 9% by the end of the year before returning to a more stable path of deceleration thereafter.

The outlook supports expectations that the National Bank of Ukraine will leave its key policy rate unchanged at 15% until at least the first quarter of next year, despite the potential impact of high borrowing costs on economic activity.