Public anxiety over a potential Russian attack on Nato territory has surged in Germany following the recent drone incursion on September 10  into Polish airspace that coincided with sharp gains by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in local elections the same weekend.

A new INSA poll commissioned by Bild and cited by European Pravda found that 62% of Germans fear that Russia may soon attack a Nato country, such as Poland or Lithuania. The fears were heightened after Russian drones reportedly violated Polish airspace 19 times on the night of September 9–10 during a broader assault on Ukraine.

Despite growing security concerns, the survey also revealed widespread public scepticism about Germany's role in supporting Ukraine and neighbouring Nato states. While 49% support halting all Russian oil and gas imports, and 51% favour using frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine, voters have shown increasing dissatisfaction with the government’s priorities.

Discontent was visible in the municipal elections in North Rhine-Westphalia on September 14, Germany’s most populous state and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s seat, where the AfD nearly tripled its support, taking almost 15% of the vote. In the previous elections, the party had secured just 5.1%. The AfD’s gains in the industrial cities of western Germany is a worrying sign of the rise of the far right parties across Europe. Currently for the first time, far-right parties are simultaneously leading the polls in all of France (National Rally), the UK (Reform UK) and Germany (AfD) as the European economies comes under increasing pressure after lost its competitive edge and is struggling to meet the challenge of reforming itself to catch up with the US.

The victory of AfD in North Rhine-Westphalia, a western Germany region, is particularly worrying as so far support for the right-wing has been largely contained to the former East German states. AfD won a series of regional elections in Eastern German states this time last year.

AfD figures pointed to the results as evidence of a broader change. “We have cemented our voter base,” said Enxhi Seli-Zacharias, an AfD politician in North Rhine-Westphalia as cited by Politico. “It is no longer purely a vote of frustration.”

Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) remained the strongest party with 33% of the vote, while coalition partner Social Democratic Party (SPD) came second at 22%. Nevertheless, the far right’s gains have unsettled mainstream politicians.

“The AfD’s strong result cannot allow us to sleep peacefully,” said Hendrik Wüst, North Rhine-Westphalia’s conservative premier. He warned that centrist leaders must urgently address issues such as poverty, housing, and migration.

As bne IntelliNews reported, the war in Ukraine is undermining European prosperity and fuelling the rise of right-wing popularist parties. Since the clash with Russia began, rising energy prices have led to the deindustrialisation  of the German economy and more recently unemployment levels have started to rise, passing the three million mark for the first time in a decade in August. With the withdrawal of the Trump administration, Europe can’t afford to take over the burden of supporting Ukraine, as most EU countries are either in recession or approaching a crisis.

Voters in the west of Germany are increasingly calling for funds to be redirected from defence spending abroad to domestic services, where budgets are being cut to pay for Ukraine. Last month Merz said: “We can no longer afford our social welfare system,” drawing a irate attack from AfD leader Alice Weidel, who pointed out despite the cuts, Berlin could afford to earmark €50bn to support Ukraine.