Russian bank customers have continued to pull funds from their accounts, with another RUB17.7bn ($193mn) withdrawn as of August 15, according to new figures released by the Russian Central Bank.
The crisis-prone population is becoming increasingly nervous that the bank sector is in truble. The sector is under increasing pressure and faces a possible banking crisis thanks to sky high interest rates.
The partial August data brings the total outflow for the first half of the month to RUB220bn ($2.4bn), already exceeding the full-month totals for June and July. In June, RUB216bn ($2.35bn) was withdrawn, followed by RUB226bn ($2.47bn) in July. The Central Bank said that the pace of withdrawals in August is currently running at double the rate of previous months.
“The withdrawal rate is two times higher in August,” the Bank said in a statement, signalling growing pressure on the country’s financial system amid continued economic uncertainty and tightening monetary conditions.
CBR governor Elvia Nabiullina last month played down the chances of a crisis, point out that the sector is healthy profit, non-performing loans (NPLs) remain muted at 6.9% of the loan book and said problems were “rumours.”
But the banking sector has been under stress in recent months, facing a combination of high inflation, rising interest rates, and restricted access to international capital markets. The Central Bank of Russia nevertheless inflation has been falling faster than expected and dropped below 9% in July which has allowed the CBR to cut rates by 300bp in the last two months and expects to cut rates by another 300bp before the end of the year, alleviating the pressure somewhat.
While officials have downplayed the risk of a systemic banking crisis, the continued outflows suggest declining confidence among retail depositors. Analysts warn that sustained pressure on liquidity could force smaller regional lenders to seek emergency support or consolidate. Anecdotal evidence coming out of Moscow suggests that small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in particular are under increasing pressure, according to bne IntelliNews sources, and a race is on between mounting debt financing costs and the CBR’s ability to cut rates.
No official explanation has been provided for the spike in August, but economists point to seasonal spending, political uncertainty ahead of regional elections, and a weakening ruble as potential contributing factors.
According to the Central Bank’s mid-month update, the total volume of household deposits remains significantly lower than at the start of the summer.
“The population of Russia continues to withdraw money from banks,” the Bank noted.