Business conditions in Poland’s manufacturing sector continued to deteriorate in September, S&P Global said on October 1.

The S&P Global Poland Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.0 in October from 46.6 in September, a larger monthly increase than the 0.7-point rise seen the previous month. It was the third straight monthly improvement and the highest since April, though still clearly below the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction.

“September rounded off a weak third quarter for the Polish manufacturing sector. The PMI averaged 46.8 over the quarter, the lowest since the second quarter of 2024,” Trevor Balchin, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said.

“That said, the direction of travel was encouraging as the headline figure rose for the third month running to a five-month high of 48.0 in September, above the average over the past three years (46.9) and pointing to a potential recovery in business conditions in the fourth quarter,” Balchin also said.

New orders received by Polish manufacturers fell for the sixth month running in October, S&P Global said. The rate of contraction was the weakest since May, as some firms reported a modest recovery in demand from European markets. Export orders also shrank for the sixth month in a row but at the slowest pace in four months.

The downturn in new orders led to another fall in output. Production declined for the fifth month in succession, though the rate of decrease was the mildest during this sequence and only modest overall.

Employment was reduced for the seventh time in 2025 so far, but the pace of job shedding was only marginal. Backlogs of work increased for just the second time in more than three years, pointing to tentative pressure on capacity.

Goods producers cut purchasing activity for the fifth month running in October, but the reduction was the smallest in that period. Stocks of inputs were also lowered, marking a sixth successive monthly drop, though again at a slower pace. Supplier delivery times lengthened only fractionally, signalling little strain on supply chains.

The 12-month outlook for production remained positive, supported by expectations of wider economic recovery, new products and access to EU funds. The Future Output Index was unchanged from September’s five-month high, though optimism stayed below its long-run average.

Input costs declined at the fastest pace since January, marking the third drop in four months. Output charges also fell for the third time in five months, although only fractionally, S&P Global said.

In terms of actual data, Poland’s industrial sector – which includes manufacturing, energy, mining, and waste management – rose 0.7% year on year in constant prices in August, down from a revised 3% y/y growth the previous month, the statistical office GUS said on September 23.

“Low economic growth among our main trading partners limits the potential for industrial recovery. Domestic demand remains its main support, but it is also slowing slightly due to declining wage growth,” Bank Millennium said in a note on GUS figures at the time.

Meanwhile, Poland’s producer price index (PPI) fell 1.2% y/y in August, easing by 0.1pp versus July, and continuing the deflationary trend that began in mid-2023, GUS also said on September 23.

GUS is set to release July industrial production and PPI data in the third week of October.