A number of highlights sprung from Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to New York for the 80th session of the UN General Assembly in late September. The one that received the most attention, however, was the signing of a $4.2bn contract with US locomotive manufacturer Wabtec.

The deal will see Kazakhstan’s national railway company Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ) acquire 300 Evolution Series ES44Aci freight locomotives over the next decade. The US Department of Commerce said the agreement is expected to support about 11,000 jobs in Texas and Pennsylvania.

US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick hailed the finalising of the agreement, saying it followed a telephone call between US President Donald Trump and Tokayev while the latter was in America. 

“This landmark deal advances US manufacturing jobs and accelerates growth, opportunity and connectivity in America and Central Asia,” Lutnick wrote on X. 

Trump himself expressed enthusiasm about the deal on Truth Social: “I just concluded a wonderful call with the Highly Respected President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Kemeluly Tokayev. We need to support our rail industry, which has been attacked for years by ‘fake environmentalists.’ Now railroads are coming back and fast!”

To top it off, Wabtec described the contract as the largest in its history. 

“This project represents KTZ’s ambition to transform Kazakhstan’s railway network into a key bridge between Europe and Asia,” Wabtec president and CEO Rafael Santana said.

The way the deal’s significance was framed by Trump’s administration may paint a picture of some kind of decisive breakthrough. The observer might also get the impression that the deal is Trump’s personal achievement. The Times of Central Asia argued in a report on September 24 that the deal has actually been three-decades in the making.

Indeed, three decades of US-Kazakhstan cooperation in the rail sector began when Kazakhstan sought to modernise its Soviet-era fleet with the help of GE Transportation after gaining independence in 1991. This move helped to upgrade hundreds of locomotives and later led to the transfer of technology and engineering skills to the country. GE Transportation was acquired by Wabtec in 2019, and in 2023 Wabtec took full ownership of a locomotive plant in Kazakh capital Astana. The company has exported locomotives built in Kazakhstan to Tajikistan, Mongolia, Moldova and Ukraine.

Evan Feigenbaum, a former US deputy assistant secretary of state for Central Asia, posted on X: “I mean, it’s great. But GE and Wabtec have been doing a locomotive business in and with Kazakhstan for 20 years. I was in the Bush Administration … and was giving speeches and talks about locomotives and Kazakhstan back then…”

Railways account for around 64% of Kazakhstan’s freight turnover, far more than road or air transport, according to state-run railway operator KTZ. The Kazakh government said the Wabtec deal will bolster the country's role in the “Middle Corridor,” a trade route connecting China and Central Asia to Europe via the South Caucasus and sometimes a route via Turkey.

Perhaps the deal’s significance lies in how it contrasts with the 25% tariffs on exports from Kazakhstan introduced by Trump earlier this year, as it suggests a positive trajectory in US-Kazakhstan relations, though the deal still largely favours US interests in this context.

Although the tariffs only cover 5% of Kazakhstan’s exports to the US, as most Kazakh exports, including oil and uranium, are exempt from the tariffs, analysts in Kazakhstan have pointed to concerning implications from their imposition.

Not a US partner in manufacturing

For economies not seen as major-league, there is of course little hope of persuading Trump to revisit the logic or otherwise of his tariff formulae.

As Kazakh economist Olzhas Baidildinov said in an interview with The Times of Central Asia, “Trump’s message is clear: produce in the US or face penalties. For Kazakhstan, there is little upside. The country’s oil and gas sector has made strides in localising production of goods that could replace Western imports, but these products will now face higher entry barriers into the US market. American companies may also become more cautious about engaging with Kazakh suppliers.”

“More broadly, this signals that the US does not regard Kazakhstan as a partner in high-tech manufacturing. Even American firms considering setting up production in Kazakhstan to benefit from low costs would now find the economics less favourable,” Baidildinov was further quoted as saying, adding: “Other countries, including EU members, may follow the US example, reinforcing the perception of Kazakhstan as merely a source of raw materials.”

Indeed, Kazakhstan appears to be keen on cashing in on its rare earths, primarily as a raw materials supplier, even as the Central Asian nation continues to seek investment into projects that would allow Astana to produce value-added goods.

According to a report from American think-tank, Atlantic Council published in July, “unlike some prospective supplier countries, Kazakhstan already knows it has rare-earth wealth. In early April, geologists in the country announced the 'Zhana Kazakhstan' discovery: an estimated twenty million metric tons of rare-earths‑bearing ore in the Karagandy region, including sizable heavy‑rare‑earth concentrations. If even 10 percent of the ore proves recoverable at today’s grades, that equates to around 200,000 tonnes of rare-earth oxide content—enough to meet current US neodymium magnet demand for a dozen years. If validated, the site would give Kazakhstan the world’s third‑largest rare-earth element reserves, trailing only China and Brazil. ”

“Washington needs a long-term partnership strategy that goes beyond homespun mining; it needs countries capable of supplying rare earths at scale,” the Atlantic Council wrote. “Since 2020, Kazakhstan has ramped up rare-earth mining, increasing its exports nearly fivefold by 2024. Still, both in 2023 and 2024, 100 percent of its rare-earth output is exported to China—a telling indicator that the resource is there, but does not currently flow to the West. By moving swiftly, the United States could hedge against future Chinese disruptions—and help build a secure, diversified global supply chain for these critical minerals.”

This supply trajectory seems more likely in Kazakh-American relations going forward, rather than one that in any way prioritises developing manufacturing in Kazakhstan. Indeed, Tokayev’s comments from a roundtable with US business leaders during his latest visit to America seemed to echo a similar sentiment as energy remains central to the partnership between the two nations. 

“Today, more than 630 American companies are successfully operating in our country, including Chevron, ExxonMobil, Boeing, Visa, Mastercard, Meta, Wabtec, and Citibank. We regard the US as an important strategic partner and reaffirm our commitment to further developing multifaceted cooperation,” he said at the roundtable.

He then told the meeting that “we recognise and highly value the large and successful investments of Chevron and ExxonMobil over the past 30 years. Despite all the turbulence in regional geopolitics, their presence in our country has never been questioned.” 

Tokayev added: “Possessing some of the world’s largest coal reserves, we share the US approach that regards it as a reliable and safe energy source, at least for the foreseeable future. Our energy strategy rests on four pillars: oil, gas, coal, and uranium — and we remain firmly committed to this principle.”

Kazakhstan supplies about 40% of the global uranium market and nearly a quarter of US uranium imports. In line with continued cooperation in energy, KazMunayGas (KMG) and US-based sustainable fuels company LanzaJet signed an agreement to build Kazakhstan’s first sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant, LanzaJet announced during Tokayev’s visit on September 23. This deal also seemed to contradict fears expressed by Baidildinov as it shows that US refiners and manufacturers might still be eager to set up shop in Kazakhstan in order to cater to non-US markets. 

Aircraft biofuel deal

The deal was unveiled during New York Climate Week at an event attended by Tokayev and KMG chairman and CEO Askhat Khassenov.

The project, which follows the completion of a joint feasibility study, now enters the front-end engineering and design (FEED) phase to finalise its technical and economic framework. Development work will begin immediately, the partners said. Domestic demand for SAF is projected to reach 70,000 tonnes annually by 2030. The deal will see LanzaJet deploying its patented ethanol-based alcohol-to-jet technology in Kazakhstan for the first time. Its investors and partners include Airbus, British Airways, Microsoft, Mitsui, Shell and Suncor. 

Jimmy Samartzis, CEO of LanzaJet, said: “Kazakhstan is the type of market that creates incredible potential across industries – agriculture, logistics, oil and gas, and aviation. Our collaboration at LanzaJet with KMG sets in motion regional leadership to advance lower carbon flight and decarbonisation of aviation, economic development for the country, and energy security for the region.”

Khassenov said the partnership would “positively impact the development of the biofuels market, improve the environmental performance of the aviation sector, and enhance Kazakhstan's transit potential.”

Other sectors that received an honourable mention by Tokayev during his visit were agriculture, education and culture. 

Tokayev invited US partners into agriculture, saying: “Kazakhstan is among the world’s top 10 grain exporters. To further strengthen our partnership, we propose establishing a joint Agro-Innovation Program aimed at developing sustainable agriculture, managing water resources, and advancing digitalization in the sector.”

He welcomed PepsiCo and Mars’ plans to establish processing facilities in Kazakhstan.

Tokayev also told how “Kazakhstan is gradually transforming into a regional academic and research hub. Today, 33 branches of foreign universities have been opened in our country, among them such leading U.S. institutions as the University of Arizona, Duke University, and Penn State.”

He noted that more than 800 Bolashak scholarship recipients are studying in the US, including at Harvard, MIT and Stanford.

On cultural ties, he welcomed the Smithsonian Institution’s decision to establish the Kazakhstan Cultural Heritage Fund. 

“We are especially grateful to Chevron chairman Michael Wirth for his active support of this important initiative,” Tokayev said.

Date with Big Tech

Another minor highlight of Tokayev’s visit was his meeting with Big Tech representatives, including Amazon, OpenAI and Meta.

The meeting did not feature any new deals, though Tokayev did discuss agreements reached earlier in September, including Amazon Kuiper’s $200mn project to build ground infrastructure in Almaty, Akkol and Aktau, enabling access to Kuiper’s satellite network and expanding broadband coverage.

Though some of the projects discussed here may have a positive impact on Kazakhstan's industrial potential, it does appear that American firms under Trump are unlikely to help Astana develop its manufacturing sector in a way that prioritises exports to the US. This, however, may not prove a major a issue, if more US companies end up pursuing an interest in using Kazakhstan as a base for exports to other markets.

Overall, though, there is no real momentum pointing to more major breakthroughs in Kazakh-American economic relations outside of the Wabtec deal. And that in itself was a very long time in the making.