France plunged deeper into political turmoil on the morning of October 6 when Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu tendered his resignation, just hours after unveiling a new cabinet. 

President Emmanuel Macron has asked Lecornu to stay on for an additional 48 hours, but his departure — only 27 days after taking office — still makes him the shortest-serving prime minister in modern French history and leaves Macron struggling to restore stability at a time of mounting economic and geopolitical pressure across Europe.

For Kyiv, the timing could hardly be worse. Macron has positioned himself as one of Europe’s leading advocates for a stronger, coordinated response to Russia’s war in Ukraine. In September, he announced that 26 countries had committed to a European “reassurance force” to help guarantee Ukraine’s security once hostilities end, an initiative developed jointly with Britain and Germany under the so-called “Coalition of the Willing”. 

But with Macron’s domestic agenda now in disarray, France’s ability to lead such efforts is in question. “At a time when Europeans need to demonstrate resolve and take unprecedented military action in support of Ukraine, France’s paralysis is a major problem,” said political analyst Rym Momtaz of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said in a comment after the fall of the previous French government just one month ago.

The French turmoil coincides with a critical point in the war itself. Ukraine faces mounting pressure to consolidate its position ahead of the winter, while European leaders are aware they can no longer count on the US for support under President Donald Trump. 

Trump, who has signalled a transactional approach to global affairs since returning to office, has already scaled back Washington’s direct involvement in Ukraine. His administration has pressed European allies to shoulder more of the burden, while hinting that US backing could hinge on broader trade concessions. Against that backdrop, France’s collapse is particularly unsettling.

Paris in disarray

Lecornu, 39, had been seen as one of Macron’s most loyal lieutenants and a safe pair of hands amid growing parliamentary gridlock. But his appointment in early September failed to calm the turbulence engulfing French politics. Macron’s gamble to reassert control through early elections backfired spectacularly, producing a fragmented National Assembly split between his centrist alliance, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, and a resurgent left-wing bloc.

With Lecornu’s exit, France has now seen off five prime ministers since 2022 — and four in 2024 alone. Even Michel Barnier, the veteran EU negotiator once touted as a stabilising force, lasted just three months. The situation highlights Macron’s waning authority as he enters the final stretch of his presidency.

“This is a government that cannot govern,” wrote Momtaz. “Europe already had a France problem — and it could not come at a worse moment.”

France’s political crisis comes amid dire fiscal conditions. With a budget deficit near 6% of GDP and limited room to manoeuvre, Finance Minister Eric Lombard warned last month that Paris might have to consider an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout if it cannot stabilise its finances. France’s credit rating faces a potential downgrade for the second time in less than a year, adding to pressure from jittery bond markets and nervous investors.

The paralysis in Paris is also casting a long shadow over European policymaking. The instability in France has raised fears that EU progress on crucial security and defence initiatives will stall, including joint funding for Ukraine.

With discontent growing and the far right calling for Macron’s resignation, France faces the prospect of deeper polarisation. Le Pen has demanded a full dissolution of the National Assembly and new elections. Macron has repeatedly rejected calls to step down but has offered no clear path forward.

The broader European picture is also rather grim. The UK, one of the co-leaders of the Coalition of the Willing, is battling its own fiscal challenges, with national debt nearing 100% of GDP and rising borrowing costs straining the public purse. The British government's popularity has slumped recently, with a corresponding surge in support for far-right Reform. Germany’s political landscape is also under pressure from the far right, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) performing strongly in recent polls.