Bolivia held general elections on August 17, and for the first time in its history the presidency will be decided in a run-off. Preliminary results from the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) indicated that none of the eight contenders reached the thresholds required for a first-round victory. According to the System of Preliminary Electoral Results (Sirepre), with over 92% of tally sheets processed, senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) leads with around 32% of the vote, followed by former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga of the Libre alliance with just under 27%.

The outcome marks the end of two decades of uninterrupted rule by the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), founded by former president Evo Morales. Both the party’s official candidate, Eduardo del Castillo, and its dissident rival Andrónico Rodríguez performed poorly, securing 3% and 8% respectively. Analysts attribute the MAS defeat to internal fragmentation, economic turmoil and Morales’s call for a “voto nulo”, which reached nearly 20% of ballots cast, a historically high level compared to an average of 4% in previous elections.

A divided left and an ascendant centre-right

The electoral landscape demonstrated a profound realignment of voter preferences. Nearly 80% of ballots went to centre-right or right-wing candidates, with businessman Samuel Doria Medina, previously seen as a front-runner, taking third place with about 20%. Medina conceded defeat and pledged support for Paz in the second round. He stated: “If I did not make it to the run-off, I would support the candidate who could defeat MAS. That candidate is Rodrigo Paz”.

Paz’s emergence as the top contender was unexpected. The 57-year-old senator and former mayor of Tarija, also the son of ex-president Jaime Paz Zamora (1989–1993), had not featured prominently in pre-election polls, which consistently placed Medina and Quiroga ahead. Analysts such as Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue argued that Paz’s less defined ideological profile made him attractive to voters who had previously leaned towards the MAS but were disillusioned with its leadership, AP reported.

Quiroga, who governed Bolivia between 2001 and 2002, represents a more traditional right-wing platform. He welcomed the results by declaring “the long night of two decades has ended”, emphasising his campaign’s focus on resolving the economic crisis and strengthening democratic institutions. However, some observers note that his established political trajectory may hinder his ability to attract undecided or MAS-aligned voters in October.

Economic turmoil as central driver

Economic conditions played a decisive role in shaping voter behaviour. Inflation reached 25% year-on-year, fuel shortages paralysed transport in several cities, and the parallel currency market eroded confidence in the boliviano. Public discontent was exacerbated by declining gas exports, mounting public debt and depleted reserves, leaving the government unable to guarantee stable supplies of essential goods.

For José Luis Exeni, former president of Bolivia’s National Electoral Court, “the economic crisis produces uncertainty and frustration in voters, and this clearly influenced electoral behaviour”, BBC reported. Surveys published prior to the election by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation confirmed that more than half of respondents felt a high level of insecurity about the country’s near-term future.

Challenges for the run-off

Both Paz and Quiroga face the task of consolidating support in a fragmented political field. Paz has called for a broad coalition to secure “stability and governability” in parliament, while Quiroga has positioned himself as the candidate of unity against what he describes as two decades of division under the MAS.

The challenges awaiting the eventual winner are considerable. Beyond restoring macroeconomic stability, the next administration will need to address institutional weakness after years of politicisation of the judiciary, confront entrenched corruption and illicit economies, and redefine Bolivia’s foreign relations after its alignment with Venezuela, Cuba, Russia and Iran under MAS governments.

Despite sporadic incidents — including an attack against candidate Andrónico Rodríguez in Chapare — election day was generally calm, with a voter turnout above 90%. Outgoing president Luis Arce, whose leadership had been marred by low approval ratings and divisions with Morales, congratulated citizens for a peaceful vote, stating that his government had “guaranteed a transparent process”.

The October 19 run-off will therefore determine not only Bolivia’s immediate leadership but also the country’s capacity to reconfigure its political system after 20 years dominated by a single movement. Whether through Paz’s promise of moderation and economic reform or Quiroga’s emphasis on experience and anti-MAS opposition, the next presidency is set to inaugurate a new phase in Bolivia’s political trajectory.