Romania’s Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator (chart), compiled by CFA Romania Association, rose by 2.3 points in August to 37.2 points, remaining in recessionary territory on the 0-100 scale, the association announced on September 19.

The improvement followed affirmations of the country’s sovereign rating by Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service, after the government advanced the first package of fiscal measures in July. 

The expectations component of the index edged up by 0.5 points to 34.2, reflecting high implementation risks for the government's reforms and in line with the negative outlook maintained by both rating agencies, while the current conditions component rose more significantly, by 5.8 points to 43.4.

“After the rating agencies affirmed Romania’s sovereign rating, the confidence indicator has registered an increase over the last two months. However, the value of the indicator and of both its components still indicate recessionary conditions. Also, the imbalances at the macro level, as well as the unpredictability of fiscal policy, will maintain uncertainty regarding the evolution of the Romanian economy, which is also reflected in the expectations component of the indicator,” said CFA Association president Adrian Codirlașu.

Survey participants lowered their average forecast for Romania’s 2025 GDP growth to 0.7%, from 0.8% in July, with some respondents warning of a potential recession. Independent analysts’ projections vary widely, reflecting inconsistencies in official statistics. ING Romania projects growth of 0.3%, while Erste Group expects 1.3%. The state forecasting body projected growth of 0.6% this month.

The average budget deficit forecast for 2025 rose slightly to 7.7% of GDP, though Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan recently suggested the gap could exceed 8% of GDP. A formal revision of the budget deficit target is expected later this week.

Despite weak confidence levels, 88% of CFA survey participants expect Romania to maintain its investment-grade rating over the next 12 months.