The recent reports from US media, suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin is signalling through intermediaries a readiness to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.

The New York Times (NYT) was the first to report back channel suggestions by the Kremlin that a ceasefire deal could be done. Now Bloomberg is reporting the same thing, citing two unnamed top Russian officials on January 25.

These signals reportedly include potential big concessions by Russian President Vladimir Putin such as abandoning demands for Ukraine's neutral status and not opposing its eventual Nato membership, in exchange for recognition of Russian sovereignty over territories seized since 2014, including four regions that Russia annexed last year, the Crimea and parts of Donbas, amounting to 18% of Ukraine's pre-2014 territory.

Bloomberg reports that US American officials and experts are sceptical of the authenticity and seriousness of these overtures. They also say they are unaware of the overtures, but say they are unlikely to be well met if they do in fact exist. There's widespread belief that these gestures are simply a ruse to play for time to rearm and also to further fracture support amongst Western allies over the wisdom of continuing support for Ukraine.

As bne IntelliNews has reported, the growing Ukraine fatigue has been palpable since last summer and now Western financial and military aid has become snarled in internal wrangling. Putin may simply be throwing these canards into the fire in order to further fan the flames of disunity amongst Western allies. They could also be intended to foster concerns in Kyiv about possible negotiations happening behind its back as Bankova appears to become increasingly alarmed at the falling enthusiasm to support it.

Against the prospect of peace is the fact that Putin has put the Russian economy on a war footing and is clearly preparing for a long war. The Russian military-industrial complex has been ramped up and is already massively outproducing Ukraine as well as most of Europe.

Despite a stalemate on the battlefield where Ukraine is making no gains and Russian only incremental gains, Russia only needs to adopt a defensive strategy and grind the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) down in a prolonged artillery duel, where Russia has a clear advantage in ammunition. It is widely believed that Putin is waiting for the November US presidential elections to pass in case former US President Donald Trump is re-elected. There is also talk of a possible major Russian counteroffensive in the summer in preparation for this event.

Despite these reports of signals, the likelihood of such negotiations materialising remains slim, say analysts. The starting positions of both sides are simply too far apart and there is no common ground on which to base initial exchanges. The Kremlin will not concede any of the territory it has gained and Bankova will not start talks until all the Russian forces have been expelled from all of Ukraine’s territory.

Moreover, the approach to just the US to initiate peace talks is problematic. The first round of pre-war talks in January 2022 were also between just Russia and the US, without Ukraine, where US Secretary of State Antony Blinken refused Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov's demands for a “no Nato” guarantee on Ukraine.

However, since then, Washington has said any peace talks deal is purely Kyiv’s prerogative and the White House will not negotiate with the Kremlin without Bankova’s involvement. And no Ukrainian leader would agree to a settlement that concedes significant territory to Russia.

“It is interesting to follow publications in Western media about the signals that the Kremlin is sending to the West, but nothing more. In reality, it is now difficult to believe in a deal with the West that would end the war,” The Bell said in a report.