Predictive Discovery Ltd (ASX: PDI) and Robex Resources Inc (TSX-V: RBX) have agreed to merge, forming a new West Africa-focused gold producer valued at about $2.35 bn.

The companies announced on October 6 that they had entered into a merger-of-equals agreement under which Predictive Discovery will acquire all Robex shares. Robex shareholders will receive 8.667 Predictive Discovery shares for each Robex share held.

The merged group will be 51% owned by Predictive shareholders, with the remainder held by Robex investors. The combined company will have an estimated annual production capacity of about 400,000 oz of gold from assets in Guinea and Mali.

“By combining two of West Africa’s largest and most advanced gold development projects and leveraging the proven track record of both management teams in Africa, we are creating a company that positions Guinea to become one of Africa’s top five gold producers,” Predictive CEO and managing director Andrew Pardey commented. 

Predictive’s key project is the Bankan gold development in Guinea, one of the largest undeveloped deposits in West Africa, while Robex operates the Nampala mine in Mali and is advancing the Kiniero project in Guinea.

“The new, diversified company will not only further de-risk our flagship Bankan Project, but also deliver enduring value for shareholders, the communities where we operate and Guinea as a whole,” said Pardey, who will act as non-executive chairman of the combined company.

The companies said the merger aims to add scale, strengthen their balance sheet and diversify assets across the region. 

Matthew Wilcox, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Robex, commented:

“This combination marks a transformative step for both companies, creating a platform with the scale, assets and capability to deliver long-term value. As incoming CEO and Managing Director of the combined company, I am excited to lead a team that brings together deep operational experience, proven development expertise and a shared commitment to responsible growth in West Africa. I look forward to overseeing the successful commissioning of the Kiniero Project and rapidly advancing the development of the Bankan Project.”

The merged Predictive–Robex group would rank just below established mid-tier players. Its scale would place it ahead of most single-asset miners such as Hummingbird Resources, Tietto Minerals, or Caledonia Mining, and close to peers like Thor Explorations and Montage Gold once their expansions are realised.

The transaction remains subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals, with completion expected in early 2026, according to a joint statement filed with the ASX and SEDAR+.

Both Guinea and Mali have recently overhauled their mining codes to tighten state oversight and signalled a firmer stance on resource nationalism and local beneficiation.

Guinea’s 2011 Mining Code—revised in 2013 and again in 2022—grants the state a free 15% stake in mining projects and allows it to purchase an additional 20% at market value, part of broader efforts to secure greater fiscal returns from its vast mineral wealth.

Mali, meanwhile, introduced a new Mining Code in August 2023 that increased state participation to 35% and boosted royalties, drawing concern from industry groups but reflecting government efforts to capture more value amid rising gold prices.