Moldova’s pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) would secure 36% of votes among decided voters if elections were held today, according to a survey conducted by iData between August 7 and 16 and published by Deschide. This represents only 25.8% of the entire electorate, as 41.4% of respondents declined to state a preference.

The results, released on August 19, suggest that the PAS, politically sponsored by President Maia Sandu, would remain the strongest party but fall short of forming a parliamentary majority after the September 28 vote. However, the poll covers the electorate in the country, not the large Moldovan population in diaspora, which predominantly supports Moldova's EU integration.

The poll indicates that only three other political entities would pass the electoral threshold: former president Igor Dodon’s Socialist-leaning Patriotic Bloc, Chisinau mayor Ion Ceban’s Alternativa bloc, and Renato Usatii’s Our Party.

With 27.5% and 11.3% of decided voters respectively, Dodon’s Patriotic Bloc and Ceban’s Alternativa would strengthen their parliamentary presence above that of PAS, but remain below the level required to form a government alone. The scores of the two blocs were possibly boosted by the ban on more radical pro-Russian parties controlled by fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor.

Ceban, who has faced an entry ban in Romania amid reports of ties with Russia, has positioned himself and his bloc partner Alexandr Stoianoglo as moderate pro-EU figures. Stoianoglo was Dodon’s endorsed candidate in the last presidential elections, raising the possibility of coordination between Alternativa and Dodon’s Patriotic Bloc in a post-electoral alliance.

Usatii, whose Our Party holds 9.2% of decided voters’ support, emerges as a potential kingmaker. Known for his ambivalent stance between Moscow and Brussels, Usatii previously backed Sandu in her presidential bid (but not in the latest presidential elections).

On August 19, while registering his party for the upcoming elections, Usatii accused the ruling PAS of pressuring magistrates to reopen investigations into his alleged involvement in the attempted assassination of Russian banker German Gorbuntsov. He claimed the move aimed to secure his eventual support in forming a parliamentary majority.

The survey reflects Moldova’s increasingly fragmented political landscape, with PAS leading but unable to rely on clear partners for a coalition. Meanwhile, pro-Russian and moderate blocs may explore cooperation, heightening the stakes for smaller players such as Usatii in shaping the outcome of the September 28 elections.