Poland’s CPI eased to 4.1% year on year in May from 4.3% y/y the preceding month, the country’s statistical office GUS said in a flash estimate on May 30 (chart).

The May flash reading marks a second month in succession in which prices eased their growth rate after plateauing at 4.9% y/y in the first three months of 2025. The May reading also comes 0.2pp below the market consensus. 

Price growth in Poland is expected to moderate further, below the upper range of the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP’s) target inflation rate, which is 3.5%, around June-August. The downward trend should be facilitated by the state-administered cut in gas prices, kicking in from July.

Lower-than-expected inflation in May and the incoming cut in gas prices are “clear signs of improving inflation prospects,” ING said in a comment. 

Inflation could already hit the NBP’s 2.5% y/y target in July, giving the central bank room to ease monetary policy further, analysts say.

“We expect further rate cuts in 25 basis point steps in July, September, and November. By the end of 2025, we anticipate the reference rate will reach 4.50%,” ING said.

The NBP's reference interest rate is currently at 5.25% after the central bank cut it by 50bp in May.

Prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks grew 5.5% y/y, picking up after a gain of 5.3% y/y the preceding month, the breakdown of the data showed. Meanwhile, energy prices expanded 13.1%, y/y, unchanged from April, while fuel prices slid 11.4% y/y after falling 8.3 y/y in the fourth month.

In monthly terms, the CPI retreated 0.2% in May after growing 0.4% m/m the preceding month, GUS data also showed. Prices of food grew 0.4% m/m while energy prices inched down 0.3% m/m. Fuel prices fell 3.7% on the month.