Moldova's economy is projected to grow by 2% in 2025 and rates of 2-3% in the coming years, according to the preliminary medium-term forecast for 2025-2028 released by the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization (MDED), quoted by MoldStreet.

The renewed forecast implies a nominal gross domestic product of MDL351bn (€16.18bn) for the year.

The government's projection is more optimistic than recent estimates from international financial institutions. Both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank have forecast growth of under 1% for Moldova in 2025. However, the MDED figure is a negative revision from the 3% growth rate anticipated in the state budget approved for 2024.

The new forecast also revises downwards growth expectations for the coming years, with projected expansions of 2.4% in 2026, 2.8% in 2027, and 3% in 2028.

In contrast, Deputy Prime Minister Doina Nistor said in a recent statement that Moldova could see economic growth of more than 5% by 2028, citing the impact of the European Union-financed Economic Growth Plan.

The MDED attributes the expected 2025 recovery to several factors, including a partial rebound in agriculture following a severe drought (agriculture made a 0.9 percentage point negative contribution to the GDP growth last year), increased production in the industrial sector, the expansion of export-oriented services, and renewed private investment. The ministry expects agriculture to grow by approximately 14%, with notable contributions from both crop production and livestock farming.

“The positive evolution will not be determined exclusively by the recovery of crop production, but also by the increasingly important contribution of the livestock sector,” the ministry noted along with the updated forecast. It warned, however, that continued climate-related uncertainty could still impact output levels and quality.

Industry is forecast to grow by 3% in 2025, supported by new production capacities from investments made in 2024.

Exports are expected to rise by about 8%, driven by improved agricultural performance and demand from European Union markets. Nevertheless, the MDED acknowledged that this will not be sufficient to offset the declines recorded in 2023 and 2024.

Meanwhile, imports are projected to grow further, pushing the trade deficit above €5.14bn.

Fixed asset investment is set to rise by over 3%, while the average monthly nominal wage is forecast at MDL15,800, a 12.57% nominal increase from 2024. Adjusted for inflation, real wage growth is estimated at 5%.

Inflation in 2025 is expected to average 7.1%, with the leu stabilising at an exchange rate of MDL18.81 to the euro, slightly below the 2023 rate of MDL18.83.

In 2024, Moldova's economy expanded by just 0.1%, with agricultural output falling 14.6% compared to 2023.