Although far from the events in the Middle East, the tourism sectors of the Balkan countries are not immune to the current crisis. From canceled arrangements to reduced interest in travel, some are already feeling the consequences, while others hope to attract tourists who had previously planned to travel elsewhere.

Every crisis hits tourism first, and the latest is no exception, Vlatko Sulev, general manager of Balkan Prime Tours, vice president of the Spiti World Network — a business network of tour operators specialising in inbound tourism — and president of the National Inbound Tourism Association of North Macedonia, told IntelliNews. 

Vlatko Sulev, general manager of Balkan Prime Tours, vice president of the Spiti World Network and president of the National Inbound Tourism Association of North Macedonia. 

“Although the Western Balkans and North Macedonia are not directly in the conflict zone, we feel the effects very quickly through air traffic disruptions, the psychological impact on travelers and rising costs. Tourism is an industry that depends on trust and a sense of security, and once those are shaken, demand immediately slows down. Additionally, the Middle East is an extremely important transit region for global air traffic, so any disruption there directly spills over into Europe, and consequently into the Balkans,” Sulev said.

On the ground, Sulev says the first effect of the crisis is a freeze in demand, and the second is that people who have already booked trips begin postponing or canceling them due to fear and uncertainty, waiting for “better times”. 

“In our case, as a company that has invested heavily in Asian markets to extend the season, the damage is even more noticeable. Around one-fifth of Asian tourists use Gulf airlines, and some of our partners had contracts with Qatar Airways, so cancellations through the end of May have been devastating. At the same time, disruptions in the region have already caused mass flight cancellations, problems at major hubs, and a sharp increase in aviation fuel prices, making travel more expensive and decisions more difficult. This directly affects tourism flows, especially in markets dependent on long-haul flights and pre-planned group travel,” Sulev added.

Ana Jancheva, a manager at Hotel Drim on the shores of Lake Ohrid, says this has led to reduced interest and an increased dependence on almost a single market, Turkey.

“This is not the case for just one hotel, but a general situation across nearly all hotels. With the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, the reduced interest has turned into cancellations or, in some cases, a decline in willingness to travel, which is somewhat understandable since tourism is a luxury in uncertain times. The cancellations are not coming from countries directly affected by the war, as North Macedonia and the region do not typically host many guests from the Middle East, but rather from multiple markets,” Jancheva told IntelliNews.

In an effort to attract more tourists, Jancheva says much of the sector has started lowering prices due to reduced demand.

“In doing so, we are harming ourselves the most. A climate is being created where the question is who will offer the lowest price. With such a trend, there is no growth, development or investment. Unfortunately, despite significant investments and renovations, we are struggling to maintain our existing prices, and any increase — though desirable — will require careful consideration. In a market economy, prices are driven by supply and demand, so we will have to wait for economic and political factors to stabilise before discussing growth,” she added.

Fear and uncertainty in Albania 

More than 12.4mn tourists visited Albania in 2025, an increase of 6.6% compared to the previous year. Developments in the Middle East are creating a dual effect on global tourism, and Albania is no exception, said Zak Topuzi, president of the Albanian Tourism Association, to IntelliNews.

“On one hand, the Middle East region had around 100mn tourists annually in 2025, and according to experts, the conflict could reduce this flow by 23mn-38mn tourists. A significant portion of these travelers is expected to shift to alternative safe destinations, mainly in the Mediterranean, such as Greece, Italy, Spain and Albania. Albania is already considered a safe market, which could help attract part of this tourist segment,” Topuzi said.

Zak Topuzi, president of the Albanian Tourism Association. 

In this context, he noted that Albania has a real opportunity to benefit in the short term by attracting some of this redirected demand.

“However, this opportunity requires a fast and coordinated response, particularly in increasing air connectivity and direct routes with international markets, accelerating the operational launch of Vlora Airport — expected to begin flights in June 2026 — and improving service standards and tourism offerings,” Topuzi said.

According to him, if the conflict continues, the short-term positive effects could diminish, as geopolitical uncertainty typically reduces consumer confidence, increases travel costs, and lowers global tourism demand.

“In such a scenario, the damage would be spread across the entire international tourism industry, including Albania. I believe the signals of a possible agreement are optimistic. In conclusion, Albania is facing both an opportunity and a risk. The outcome will depend on the speed of response and the ability to position itself as a safe, accessible, and competitive Mediterranean destination,” he concluded.

He also noted that there is pressure to increase prices, though not yet across all markets. In some cases, airlines have raised fares by 30-40% and reduced capacity.

“The Turkish market has already increased package prices by around €20 due to higher fuel costs, but this is not yet a decisive factor. For Albania, this means that in the short term, prices may remain competitive to attract new demand. If the crisis continues, rising transport and supply costs will gradually be reflected in travel packages,” Topuzi added.

Although there is currently no strong immediate pressure for significant price increases, the trend is upward and should be monitored carefully, according to representatives of Albania’s tourism sector.

Short-term impact in Montenegro

Sanja Pepić, owner of Caeli Travel in Montenegro, says the current situation in the Middle East is having a short-term impact on tourism flows, particularly regarding the Israeli and broader Middle Eastern markets.

“In March and April, we observed a wave of cancellations, mainly caused by disruptions in air traffic and regional uncertainty. Across the Western Balkans, a similar pattern is emerging — short-term disruptions combined with increased interest in safe and stable destinations,” Pepić told IntelliNews.

Sanja Pepić, owner of Caeli Travel in Montenegro. 

She added that this effect is temporary and concentrated within a limited timeframe.

“From our agency’s perspective, we are not seeing cancellations for May, which is a strong indicator that confidence is already returning and the market is stabilising faster than expected. Official data supports this trend, with Montenegro recording over 41,000 tourist arrivals and 85,000 overnight stays in February 2026, indicating stable demand despite global uncertainties. Israeli visitors account for about 4.3% of total tourism turnover in Montenegro, meaning that while the impact is noticeable, it does not define the destination’s overall performance,” Pepić added.

There is also hope in Podgorica that Montenegro could benefit from shifts in global tourism demand.

“In times of geopolitical uncertainty, travelers actively seek safe, stable, and accessible destinations, and Montenegro is increasingly recognised as such. There is already growing interest and new bookings from other markets that are compensating for the temporary decline. While the sector remains cautious, current indicators are encouraging. If the situation continues to stabilise, Montenegro is well positioned not only to maintain a strong tourism season but potentially to exceed expectations, thanks to its image as a safe and attractive Mediterranean destination,” Pepić said.

Additionally, Montenegro is entering the 2026 season with significantly improved air connectivity. At least 14 new routes have already been introduced, with more than 20 expected, further improving accessibility and supporting continued growth in arrivals.

However, no one can accurately predict what the peak tourist season will look like.

“At this moment, it is difficult to provide a fully reliable forecast. If the situation stabilises, there is certainly room for improvement, especially if the European market becomes more active. But we must be realistic: in tourism, confidence returns more slowly than it is lost. Even in the event of a truce, the aviation industry warns that it will take months for the market to fully normalise, and travelers’ sense of security does not return overnight,” said Vlatko Sulev of Balkan Prime Tours.

An additional problem, he noted, is inflation and the constant rise in prices, which are already putting serious pressure on the tourism sector.

“That is why I expect a challenging season, with many ad hoc and last-minute requests, but I remain positive and hope that with quick reactions, flexibility, and good organisation, a large part of the season can still be saved. Globally, UN Tourism still expects moderate growth in 2026 rather than a dramatic decline, meaning there is room for recovery — but it will not happen automatically,” Sulev added.

Industry representatives remains cautious about how the situation will unfold. If air transport does not stabilise, Balkan tourist destinations will rely primarily on visitors from neighbouring countries, travelling by land.

“Ohrid and the Balkans as a tourist destination will be more attractive to regional travelers because it is much easier to travel 200, 300, or 500 kilometres by land than to wait several days for delayed flights. That is why I believe this region will be more attractive this tourist season,” said Ljupčo Juzmeski, a tour guide from Ohrid.