The European Commission halved its growth projections for Romania to 0.7% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, according to the Autumn Forecast published on November 17. The Commission expects economic growth to recover to 2.1% in 2027.

The revision reflects Romania’s fiscal slippage in 2024–2025 and the subsequent shift to a more contractionary fiscal stance.

The general government deficit reached 9.3% of GDP in 2024, above the 8.8% level assumed in the Spring Forecast of May 19. For 2025, the deficit is now estimated at 8.4% of GDP, compared with 7.9% anticipated in May. Romania aims to reduce the fiscal gap to 6.2% of GDP in 2026 and 5.9% in 2027, with the latter target requiring additional measures.

The Commission said the fiscal stance will be contractionary in 2025 and 2026 before turning neutral in 2027. Its composite fiscal index, which signals contractionary effects when positive and is considered neutral between +/-0.25%, is forecast for Romania at 1.7% in 2025, up from 1.4% estimated in May, and at 3.0% in 2026, compared with a previously expected neutral -0.1%.

This tightening is expected to reshape both Romania's pace and structure of economic growth.

In 2026, the full impact of consolidation measures — including the freeze of public wages and pensions and tax increases — combined with still elevated inflation, is expected to generate a 0.8% drop in private consumption, following modest 0.7% growth in 2025 and strong 5.7% expansion in 2024. Public consumption is projected to fall 1.7% in 2026, after a 0.6% decline in 2025.

Gross fixed capital formation, in contrast, is forecast to accelerate from 2.7% in 2025 to 5.4% in 2026, supported by improved business confidence and the completion of Recovery and Resilience Plan investments. Investment growth is expected to remain solid at 2.6% in 2027 as Romania increases its use of cohesion funds.

Lower private consumption is projected to curb import growth, while slowing wage dynamics should support export performance. Net exports are therefore expected to contribute positively to growth. The current account deficit is forecast to narrow to 6.4% of GDP in 2026, from an estimated 7.9% this year, before easing further to 6% in 2027.

Romania	2025	2026	2027
GDP growth (%, yoy)	0.7	1.1	2.1
Inflation (%, yoy)	6.7	5.9	3.8
Unemployment (%)	6.1	5.8	5.6
General government balance (% of GDP)	-8.4	-6.2	-5.9
Gross public debt (% of GDP)	59.1	61.1	62.7
Current account balance (% of GDP)	-7.9	-6.4	-6
Source: European Commission