Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic will attend Russia’s Victory Day military parade in Moscow this week, in a move that risks a serious rupture with Brussels and underscores Serbia’s increasingly ambivalent stance to EU enlargement.

The Kremlin confirmed on May 6 that Vucic and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico will be the only European leaders to attend the May 9 commemoration marking the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany.

Yuri Ushakov, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy aide, said 29 foreign leaders would be present, including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Vucic is also scheduled to hold bilateral talks with Putin on the sidelines of the event.

“A conversation is planned between Vladimir Putin and the President of the Republic of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic,” Ushakov said, adding that the leaders would discuss both bilateral relations and the situation in the Western Balkans.

Vucic’s decision to attend the parade flies in the face of repeated warnings from EU officials, who have cautioned that his appearance in Moscow could effectively derail Serbia’s long-stalled accession process.

Serbia has been a candidate for EU membership since 2012 but has made limited progress in recent years, in part due to its refusal to align with the EU’s foreign policy and its unresolved tensions with Kosovo.

Brussels has tied Serbia’s future membership to reforms in rule of law, anti-corruption measures and the normalisation of relations with Kosovo — the latter of which remains deeply contentious in Belgrade. But with enlargement fatigue setting in across the EU, Vucic may see little incentive to avoid overtures to Moscow.

“Even if the sky falls on my head, I will go,” Vucic said last month, affirming his commitment to attend the Victory Day parade. He said he would “proudly represent Serbia”, highlighting the country’s historical ties with Russia and the legacy of their wartime alliance.

However, Vucic's attendance seemed to be in question after he fell ill and was hospitalised on May 3 after abruptly cutting short a trip to the United States, citing chest pain. The timing of his health scare — and his limited meetings in the US — fuelled speculation in Serbia that he may be using medical issues to mask diplomatic difficulties.

Opposition figures accused Vucic of staging a diversion after reports surfaced that previously planned meetings with senior Republican lawmakers and even the President Donald Trump failed to materialise. His return to Belgrade was followed by confirmation that he would resume duties on May 7, including meetings with the British and Russian ambassadors.

At the weekend, Serbia's Finance Minister Sinisa Mali told RTS that he could not confirm whether Vucic would still attend the Moscow event, but added, “knowing him… I assume that he will keep his word.” The confirmation from the Kremlin suggests Vucic will indeed go through with the visit. 

The parade attendance is expected to further antagonise EU officials already grappling with a divided front on Russia. Slovakia’s Fico, who also plans to attend, met Putin in December and has taken a sceptical stance on Ukraine aid — complicating Brussels’ efforts to maintain cohesion in its Russia policy.

Serbia has long maintained a balancing act in foreign policy, officially committed to EU integration while cultivating close ties with Russia, China, Turkey and the UAE, as well as its old non-aligned friends from the Global South. That policy, established in the late 2000s, has allowed Belgrade to pursue military cooperation and energy deals with Moscow, while seeking investment and trade from the EU and the US.

Critics have repeatedly claimed that the government’s positioning is unsustainable as geopolitical tensions rise. “Serbia cannot sit on two chairs forever,” said one EU official familiar with enlargement discussions. But as the US seeks rapprochement with Russia, why shouldn’t Serbia be able to keep up its balancing act?

In Belgrade, there is growing scepticism that EU membership remains a realistic goal. Many in the political elite see Brussels’ enlargement criteria as inconsistent and politically driven — a sentiment Vucic has increasingly echoed. 

Although the president frequently claims that EU integration remains his top priority, his actions indicate a lack of confidence in Serbia's chances of joining the bloc anytime soon. 

As Serbia prepares to mark the Soviet war victory in Moscow, the message from Belgrade is clear: the EU can no longer assume its orientation is a given.