Kazakhstan’s GDP per capita has overtaken that of northern neighbour and former colonial master Russia for the first time. It has reached $14,770 in 2025 compared with Russia’s $14,260, according to latest figures published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The development is a serious blow to Russian prestige. After all, Russia sits at the head of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which counts Kazakhstan as its second most prominent member.

Kazakhstan's economy has benefitted from international sanctions imposed on Russia for its war on Ukraine. At the same time, second-quarter economic data from Russia suggest the country may have narrowly avoided a technical recession. The Russian economy “is clearly struggling amidst imbalances that have built up due to the war effort,” Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics said in an August 13 note. “We expect growth to slow further over the coming quarters.”

One effect of the sanctions has been to expand Kazakhstan's role as a transit link between Europe and China, with many traders wanting to avoid Russian territory. Another impact has seen businesses and investors shifting their gaze towards the Central Asian country, away from Russia.

Energy and mineral exports remain key drivers of growth in Kazakhstan, which boasts Central Asia’s largest economy, but recent years have seen its government step up efforts to diversify exports by expanding and developing processing industries and increasing the share of higher value-added products in the export mix. These efforts have been boosted by the increased attention given by investors to Kazakhstan as an alternative to Russia’s sanctions-riddled economy. 

Aside from surpassing Russia, Kazakhstan has become the regional Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) leader in terms of GDP per capita. Among the CIS countries, Armenia’s GDP per capita stands at $8,860, Moldova’s at $8,260, Belarus’s at $7,880, Azerbaijan’s at $7,600, Uzbekistan’s at $3,510, Kyrgyzstan’s at $2,750 and Tajikistan’s at $1,430. Ukraine’s figure is $6,260, the IMF data shows.

Kazakhstan booms

Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 6.3% y/y in the first seven months of 2025, the Ministry of National Economy announced on August 12.

Goods production increased 8.3% during the period, with industrial output up 6.9% and services rising 5.2%. The largest contributions came from transport and storage, which surged 22.5%, and construction, which grew 18.5%. Wholesale and retail trade rose 8.6%, with wholesale trade up 9.5% and retail trade increasing 6.6%.

Mining output climbed 8.5%, while manufacturing expanded 6.1%. Gross agricultural output rose 3.7% compared with the same period last year.

Trade growth accelerated slightly from 8.4% in January–June to 8.6% in January–July.

Russia hits doldrums

In 2024, Russia’s GDP per capita was $14,790, while Kazakhstan’s was $14,150. GDP per capita reflects the average economic output per person, calculated by dividing total GDP by the population.

Russia’s economic growth slowed in the second quarter of 2025, with the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) estimating annual GDP growth at 1.1%, down from 1.4% in the first quarter. The statistical agency did not release quarterly figures.

The Ministry of Economic Development reported that Russia’s GDP grew by 1.2% y/y in the first half of 2025, compared with 4.7% in the same period last year.