A sustained $10 increase in global oil prices could generate around $3bn in additional annual export revenues for Azerbaijan and about $1.5bn in extra state budget income from the energy sector, according to estimates by Dutch banking group ING Group.

The estimate was provided by Dmitry Dolgin, chief economist for Russia and the CIS at ING, who said the additional fiscal inflows correspond to roughly 2% and 4% of Azerbaijan’s GDP respectively.

Dolgin said such a trend would effectively eliminate the risk of a foreign trade deficit in 2026 and strengthen the stability of Azerbaijan’s national currency, the manat. At the same time, he noted that the short-term impact on economic growth would likely remain limited due to constraints on expanding the physical volumes of hydrocarbon exports.

“Given the limited opportunities to increase hydrocarbon export volumes, the short-term impact on economic growth is expected to be minimal,” Dolgin said. He added that imported inflation could accelerate because roughly 45% of Azerbaijan’s imports come from developed economies and countries located near the current conflict zone, all of which are likely to be negatively affected by rising energy prices.

ING also forecasts Azerbaijan’s GDP growth at 2.5% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. Compared with its previous outlook, the bank lowered its forecast for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points but increased its projection for 2027 by 1 percentage point. As a result, the average annual growth rate for 2026–2027 is estimated at 2.75%.

According to the bank’s quarterly projections, Azerbaijan’s economy is expected to grow by 3% in the first quarter of 2026, 2% in the second quarter, 4% in the third quarter and 1% in the fourth quarter. In 2027, growth is forecast at 3% in the first quarter, 3.5% in the second quarter, 2% in the third quarter and 3.5% in the fourth quarter.

ING also expects inflation in Azerbaijan to average 5.4% in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027. Compared with its previous forecast, the bank slightly increased its 2026 inflation outlook by 0.1 percentage points while lowering its projection for 2027.

The bank estimates that inflation will average around 6% in the first quarter of 2026, 5.7% in the second quarter, 5.1% in the third quarter and 4.9% in the fourth quarter.

According to official statistics, Azerbaijan’s economy expanded by 1.4% in 2025, while average annual inflation reached 5.6%, compared with 2.2% in 2024.

Azerbaijan’s 2026 state budget is based on an oil price assumption of $65 per barrel. As of the latest data, Azeri Light crude was trading at $82.29 per barrel, while Brent crude May futures stood at $81.16.

Official data shows that Azerbaijan earned $12.1bn from oil exports in 2025, when the average export price exceeded $70 per barrel. In 2024, oil export revenues reached $14.4bn, with the average price at $84 per barrel.

State budget revenues from the oil and gas sector totalled AZN18.8bn in 2025, representing a 7.2% increase compared with the previous year.

ING’s projections broadly align with several international forecasts, though estimates vary. Fitch Ratings, Moody's and Fitch Solutions expect Azerbaijan’s GDP growth to remain close to 2–2.5% in the near term, while institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank forecast slightly lower expansion rates.