India and the United States are close to finalising a long-awaited bilateral trade deal that could sharply lower tariffs on Indian exports to about 15–16% from the current average of 50%, Mint reported on October 22. The deal, part of which has been under discussion for several years, seeks to reset trade ties between the two nations by balancing market access with energy and agricultural commitments.

According to the report, energy and agriculture are the key components driving the negotiations. India may also agree to gradually scale down its imports of Russian crude oil in return for tariff concessions from Washington. The purchases of Russian oil had earlier triggered an additional 25% levy on Indian exports, adding to the reciprocal tariffs announced in April. Russia currently accounts for nearly 34% of India’s crude imports, while the US supplies about 10% of its total oil and gas demand by value.

The Indian side is also considering allowing larger imports of non-genetically modified corn and soymeal from the US to meet growing domestic demand from the poultry, dairy and ethanol sectors. The current import quota for American corn is 0.5mn tonnes a year, and this could be raised even though duties will remain unchanged at 15%. The move is seen as part of a broader effort to address food security while giving Washington a foothold in India’s agriculture market.

Negotiations have also focused on easing the entry of non-GM soymeal for both human and livestock consumption. However, discussions remain inconclusive on tariff concessions for dairy products, especially high-end cheese, a key American demand, Mint added. Sensitive areas like agriculture and energy still need political clearance before the deal is formally announced.

Mint reported that the bilateral trade agreement is likely to be unveiled at the ASEAN Summit later this month, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump may meet. The deal’s contours are largely settled, with a built-in review mechanism that would allow both sides to revisit tariff and market access conditions periodically.

Energy cooperation remains another important component. India, which imports around $12–13bn worth of crude and gas annually from the US, could expand this by a similar amount if pricing remains favourable. The commerce ministry, external affairs ministry and the national security adviser’s office are jointly steering the negotiations, with a target to conclude the deal by November 2025.

The talks come as the US looks to deepen trade ties with allies amid falling agricultural exports to China and shifting global supply chains. A successful agreement would mark one of the most significant resets in India–US trade relations in recent years.

In market indicators, the GIFT Nifty index rose sharply on the back of the Mint report, suggesting that Indian equities could open at or near a record high on October 23. Indian stock markets were closed on October 22 for Diwali.

Gift Nifty, formerly known as SGX Nifty, is a derivative contract linked to India's Nifty 50 index, originally traded on the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX).