India is on course to become the world’s third-largest economy by fiscal 2030–31, driven by emerging strength in manufacturing, continued resilience in agriculture and services, and a policy push on energy security and biofuels, Fortune reported, citing findings from a new study by S&P Global.

While manufacturing value added at present contributes 17.2% to India’s real GDP and its share of global manufacturing exports remains limited, the study highlights that the country’s goods exports more than doubled between 2009 and 2023 in US dollar terms. However, India’s share in global manufacturing exports stood at just 1.8% in 2024, largely unchanged over the past decade. In contrast, its share in global services exports grew from 2.9% in 2014 to 4.3% in 2024, according to Fortune.

The study, titled India Forward – Transformative Perspectives, compiled by experts from S&P Global and Crisil, also notes a decline in India’s share of global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. After a pandemic-era peak of 6.5% in FY2020–21, the figure dropped to 2.1% by FY2023–24. Despite this, India continues to maintain its status as the fastest-growing large economy, even amid a moderation in real GDP growth projected for FY2024–25. Its relatively low dependence on external trade offers some insulation from global trade disruptions and tariff shifts, Fortune added.

The report observes that rising US tariffs on several Asian countries—including China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand and Bangladesh—could potentially benefit India by redirecting investment and demand toward its manufacturing sector. This redirection may help India raise its export share and accelerate industrial growth, according to Fortune.

S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows that India led the Global Manufacturing PMI Output Index over the past year, averaging close to 60 points. In comparison, major economies such as the US, Eurozone, UK, China and Japan mostly recorded index levels around or below the 50-point mark. Fortune reported that this trend signals India’s improving competitiveness and growing appeal for manufacturing investments.

The study underscores that India’s positioning in global supply chains can strengthen further as businesses shift toward local sourcing, proximity to end markets, and deeper regional integration. These dynamics are expected to boost investor interest, spur technological advancement, enhance manufacturing competitiveness, and create more high-quality jobs in the sector.