Hungary recorded a historic low in the number of births in October, with only 5,979 children born during the month, down 10% from the same period a year earlier, according to data from the Central Statistical Office (KSH). Deaths fell by 6.8% to 10,333, resulting in a natural population decline of 4,354, only slightly below the 4,424 registered in October 2024.

In the first ten months of the year, 60,304 children were born, 7.1% fewer than a year earlier, while the number of deaths reached 102,748, a 2.2% decrease. Natural decrease over the period widened to 42,444, up 5.7%, pushing Hungary’s population below 9.5mn for the first time since 1952.

Hungary’s fertility rate fell to 1.31 in the first ten months, down from 1.39 in 2024 and from 1.62 four years earlier.

The government attributes the fertility rate’s earlier rise, from 1.2 to above 1.6 in the 2010s, to its family support schemes, but experts say the increase was primarily driven by the large 1970s birth cohorts reaching child-bearing age.

They add that the long-term decline that began in the 1980s has gained momentum since 2022, with policy effects weakening amid economic uncertainty and high inflation. Analysts also point to a shrinking number of women of child-bearing age and sustained emigration, with some estimates indicating that one in six Hungarian children are born abroad.

Hungary’s population has declined by roughly 1.25mn over the past four decades. Should current trends continue, the figure could fall to 8.5mn by 2040 and to around 6mn by 2070, experts warn.

The deepening demographic crisis is expected to have wide-ranging implications and is already challenging the labour market. The shrinking active workforce is putting increasing pressure on the pay-as-you-go pension system, which analysts say requires major reform. The government has yet to address the issue comprehensively, amid potential political risks.