Beijing has spent the past few weeks lashing out at Japan with its all too familiar mix of chest-beating nationalism, bombast and thinly veiled threats - behaviour that underscores how thoroughly China is cornering itself diplomatically in East Asia.

What began as a routine parliamentary statement in Tokyo has mushroomed into one of the ugliest Japan–China spats in years, with Beijing now reviving its most verbally aggressive “wolf warrior” instincts just as it claims to want regional stability.

Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, the first woman to ever hold the position, barely had time to settle into office before Beijing unleashed a storm. Her description of a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan as a scenario that would threaten Japan’s survival crossed a line Chinese leaders insist no foreign government should even discuss.

However, rather than respond with a degree of decorum and balanced diplomacy, Beijing’s political class reached for the old nationalist playbook, issuing inflammatory denunciations , personal insults and even threats of death against the Japanese PM. Instead of distancing itself from such threats though, China’s foreign ministry defended the invective, signalling that the leadership sees no cost in projecting hostility towards Japan.

Beijing shoots itself in the foot

The result has been a spectacular own goal for Beijing. Takaichi, a hardline conservative in an already conservative party – Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) - is also a pragmatist aware of Japan’s economic dependence on China. Yet with claims that she should be beheaded ringing in her ears, Takaichi has stood tall and refused to back down as so many international leaders do when faced with the full might of Chinese political displeasure. Indeed, Beijing’s attacks have given Takaichi little political room to soften her tone, especially as Japan’s public grows weary of China’s sabre-rattling around Taiwan, its increasing militarisation of the East China Sea and its relentless economic coercion.

As such, far from intimidating Tokyo as it no doubt hoped, Beijing is accelerating precisely the outcome it fears: a more militarily capable and more strategically aligned Japan alongside the United States, Taiwan, and others.

China’s continued bluster has also coincided with Tokyo’s steady expansion of its defensive posture near Taiwan. Plans to deploy medium-range surface-to-air missiles on Yonaguni, Japan’s westernmost island, were already in motion, but Beijing’s recent tirades have strengthened political support for such measures across the country; Japan’s scramble of a fighter jet after a Chinese drone passed between Yonaguni and eastern Taiwan illustrates how routine these flashpoints have become but that Japan is willing to deploy the necessary measures should China come too close to its shores.

China of course denounces these actions as provocation, missing the obvious hypocrisy behind such claims given the initial drone launch authorised by Beijing, but refuses to acknowledge that its own military aggression against Taiwan in recent years is a primary driver in the increased regional tensions.

Beijing – as it typically does - has also added economic pressure to its rhetorical onslaught with bans on Japanese seafood, the suspension of popular Japanese films including one featuring Crayon Shin-chan, and by way of warnings to its citizens not to travel to Japan. A number of airlines have toed Communist Party the line by cancelling flights to Japan. But these are the familiar tools of coercion used repeatedly against countries that displease China including South Korea, Australia, and Lithuania. They long ago grew monotonous and tiresome for all involved.

Yet the diminishing returns for China are obvious. Japan is not retreating and shows no sign such a move is on the horizon.

Instead, Tokyo is tightening its coordination with Taiwan and the United States while accelerating its own defence reforms long avoided by previous administrations.

That Taiwan also announced a $40bn defence budget on November 26 by way of an op-ed in the Washington Post would not have gone down well either in Beijing. “I will boost defence spending to protect our democracy” Taiwan’s President William Lai said, adding that “The People’s Republic of China’s unprecedented military build-up, combined with intensifying provocations in the Taiwan Strait, East and South China Seas and across the Indo-Pacific, have highlighted the fragility of peace in the region. Beijing’s willingness to alter the status quo by force has become increasingly evident.”

Lai went on to name Japan first and foremost alongside other Taiwanese allies in saying “We are grateful that the international community has continued to speak out forcefully for peace across the Taiwan Strait. Recent statements from Japan, the US, Europe, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and the Group of Seven have all contributed to deterrence in the region. We will further cooperate across maritime, cybersecurity, resilience and other domains that support a shared deterrence architecture across the Indo-Pacific.”

Trump, not Xi, the one to watch

Complicating the picture somewhat though is Donald Trump’s muted public stance on the crisis. Tokyo’s political class has grown accustomed to oscillation in Washington’s China policy, and there are quiet worries on both sides of the Pacific that Trump, ever opportunistic and unpredictable, could one day trade away Taiwan’s security for concessions aimed at boosting US coffers from Beijing.

Takaichi’s reassurances that she retains Washington’s ear, this time cannot mask the broader uncertainty. Such a political vacuum - and China’s belligerence - only strengthens the argument in Tokyo for greater self-reliance and a more assertive security posture.

Meanwhile, China is pouring fuel on the fire it lit, in the process risking flashback, with a torrent of militaristic propaganda. The People’s Liberation Army has rolled out music-video-style demonstrations of missile brigades, naval drills and soldiers exhorting one another to prepare for battle. These theatrics, meant to project resolve, instead broadcast a deep-seated insecurity. Especially in a nation whose bark is overused, and is never followed up by a bite.

Such moves by Beijing therefore only serve to highlight how deeply China has backed itself into a corner: its political leadership cannot accommodate even hypothetical discussions of Taiwan’s defence without unleashing a nationalist fury that narrows its diplomatic options.

As a result, with Beijing’s tedious and exaggerated victim complex trundling on but generating little sympathy, while Communist Party members insist Japan’s moves threaten regional stability, for the rest of the world, the reverse is true.

China’s coercive approach to Taiwan, its constant pressure around Japan and other nations bordering the South China Sea’s maritime claims and its revived wave of wolf warrior aggression are convincing Tokyo, and much of the rest of Asia and the wider world, that patience no longer works.

In attempting to intimidate Japan, China is accelerating a geopolitical realignment that leaves it more isolated and more mistrusted than ever.

Beijing’s leaders may believe they are drawing red lines. In practice, they are drawing the outlines of a trap that they themselves are walking into, and one in which every outburst strengthens the resolve of their neighbours, and every threat pushes Japan further out of China’s orbit and deeper into a security posture Beijing will one day wish it had not provoked.