Polish retail sales grew 3.1% year on year (y/y) in constant prices in August, slowing from a 4.8% y/y rise in July, the statistics office GUS said on September 22.

The August reading proved a disappointment, as the market consensus expected a gain of 3.6% y/y. “The slower year-on-year growth in retail sales in August … was mainly the result of fewer trading days and the long weekend around the August 15 public holiday, which likely encouraged travel rather than shopping in malls,” ING said in a note.

“This was reflected in a decline in food sales and a strong 6.1% y/y increase in fuel sales,” ING also said.

Five out of eight main retail segments posted annual increases in August, compared to six in July, GUS said.

Sales of food, beverages and tobacco indeed fell 3.4% y/y in the eighth month after a 0.4% y/y drop in July. Meanwhile, fuel sales rose 6.1% y/y in August, picking up from a 0.7% y/y increase the preceding month.

Sales of cars and car parts rose 9.4% y/y in August, slowing from a 10.7% y/y increase in July. Meanwhile, pharmaceuticals and cosmetics rose 3.3% y/y in August, down from 4.9% y/y the preceding month.

Sales of textiles, clothing and footwear gained 18.9% y/y in August, compared to July’s 14.7% y/y growth. Furniture, audio and video equipment and household appliances sales rose 13.9% y/y in August, also slower than July’s 15.3% y/y gain.

In the press and books category, sales fell 2% y/y in August, after a 3% y/y rise the preceding month. The broad “other” segment also weakened, with a 3.7% y/y decline in August after a 5.5% y/y fall in July.

On a monthly basis, retail sales in constant prices fell 0.4% m/m in August, reversing a 4.4% m/m increase in July.

In current prices, retail turnover rose 3% y/y in August, compared with a 4.8% y/y increase in July. Turnover fell 0.9% m/m in current prices in August, compared with a 4.2% m/m rise in the seventh month.

Seasonally adjusted data showed a 4.7% y/y increase in retail turnover in August, compared with 4.4% in July, while in m/m terms adjusted turnover rose 0.7% after being flat the preceding month, GUS said.

With most figures for the second quarter of 2025 now available, the structure of Poland’s GDP growth in 2025 will likely differ somewhat from earlier expectations, analysts say.

The expansion will benefit from stronger consumption but suffer from weaker investment due to delays in implementing projects under the National Recovery Plan.

“As a result, the forecast for this year’s GDP growth remains at 3.5%, with third-quarter growth expected to be close to 4% y/y,” ING said

Retail sales data also do not materially alter the outlook for monetary policy, as the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is currently focused on inflation and wage figures. One more 25bp interest rate cut is anticipated in 2025 in October or November.

The NBP has administered three interest rate reductions this year so far, bringing the reference interest rate down to 4.75% from 5.5%.