Following the underwhelming Alaska summit, US president Donald Trump has invited five European leaders, NATO, and the EU to the Oval Office as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to close a deal that could end the war on August 18.

It's going to be a tough sell. President Vladimir Putin demanded Ukraine concede all the Donbas to Russia, including those parts the Armed Force of Russia (AFR) does not occupy. However, he also said that he would freeze the fighting along the line of contract in the two southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia that would nevertheless leave Russia with a land bridge connecting the Russian region of Rostov with the Crimea peninsula.

That is a non-starter for Zelenskiy, who has repeatedly said that he will not give up any Ukrainian territory.

“Russia is still unsuccessful in the Donetsk region. Putin has been unable to take it for 12 years, and the Constitution of Ukraine makes it impossible to give up territory or trade land,” Zelenskiy said in a press conference the day before the White House meeting with Trump.

Trump one-on-one

A total of five EU leaders as well as the Nato General Secretary and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in addition to Zelenskiy will be in Washington, but Trump is insisting on a one-on-one meeting with Zelenskiy before meeting the others, Bild reports.

It appears that Trump intends to try and sell Zelenskiy on Putin’s offer for peace talks in isolation before widening the discussion to include the European delegation.

As reported by bne IntelliNews, the deal on the table looks very similar to Trump’s seven-point “final offer” plan laid out in London in April that contains many of the same points, including ceding territory to Russia. That was rejected out of hand by Bankova, who insisted on an immediate and unconditional ceasefire before any negotiations could begin, and was backed by Kyiv’s EU partners.

Trump has suggested that if he can reach an agreement with Zelenskiy on Putin’s behalf then a trilateral meeting could be arranged very quickly.

The main points of Putin’s Alaska offer include:

▪ ceasefire until a comprehensive agreement is reached — will not happen;

▪ Ukraine must withdraw troops from Donetsk and Luhansk regions in exchange for freezing the front line in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions;

▪ return of occupied parts of Sumy and Kharkiv regions under Ukraine's control;

▪ formal recognition of Russia's sovereignty over Crimea;

▪ lifting at least some sanctions against Russia;

▪ Ukraine's ban on joining NATO;

▪ official status of the Russian language in some parts of Ukraine or throughout Ukraine, as well as freedom of activity for the Russian Orthodox Church.

Zelenskiy is already sceptical of this plan. “Since the territorial issue is so important, it should be discussed only by the leaders of Ukraine and Russia at a trilateral meeting. So far, Russia gives no sign that a trilateral will happen, and if Russia refuses, then new sanctions must follow,” he said in a press conference the day before.

Nato and security deals

In comments before the meeting, Trump insisted that Ukraine will have to accept some territorial losses. He also said that Ukraine’s eventual Nato access was off the table. This is another concession to the Kremlin that has insisted on no-Nato from the start of the crisis. One of the negative results from the Alaska summit was Trump also withdrew his suggestion of a 30-day unconditional ceasefire and is now calling for the two parties to go straight to a more permanent, but more difficult to organise, peace deal.

Zelenskiy has also introduced a new element into the talks, insisting on “ironclad” security deals from Russia that it will not renew the conflict if a halt in hostilities is achieved – an idea that Putin said he is open to.

Another hot topic of discussion that is expected in the wider US-European format is the possibility of the Western partners, including the US, of offering Ukraine some sort of Nato-like Article 5 security guarantees – something else that Putin says the Kremlin would accept.

However, as a true Nato-like security deal remains unlikely, the best security guarantee for Ukraine “is a strong Ukrainian army,” Zelenskiy said. “Security must work in practice, like Nato's Article 5. And we consider EU membership as part of security guarantees,” the president told reporters.

He also called for Ukraine’s accession bid to remain linked to that of Moldova, following recent suggestions they be delinked to avoid holding Moldova’s accession plans up.

“There can be no division between Ukraine and Moldova in the process of European integration. If that happens, it will show that Europe is not united regarding Ukraine,” Zelenskiy said.

Going into the meeting with Trump, it appears that the EU position has not changed much: on August 17, von der Leyen repeated calls for “peace through strength” and the need to transform Ukraine into a “steel porcupine” and make it impossible for Russia to digest.

In a powerful joint statement from Brussels, von der Leyen said Europe stands firmly behind Ukraine, reaffirming its unwavering support for Ukraine's sovereignty, security, and a European path.

The EU council president said: "If no ceasefire is agreed, the EU and US must increase pressure on Russia.”

The EU is already working on a nineteenth package of sanctions, but to date Trump has placed no new sanctions on Russia whatsoever. Moreover, he has let the threat of imposing 100% duties on Russia and secondary sanctions on China, if it continues to buy Russian oil, slide, despite adding 25% duties to Indian imports as punishment for buying Russian oil.

Von der Leyen said a deal that must include security guarantees to protect both Ukraine and Europe, she says. Trump has suggested that Washington is now open to providing Ukraine with security guarantees – a reversal of his earlier position of staying out of a peace deal entirely – but given no details on what those guarantees would look like. This point is likely to be the main focus of his meeting with the European leaders today.

“Ukraine must also be able to uphold its territorial sovereignty, and there must also be no limitations on its armed forces - including on joining international organisations and getting assistance from other countries,” said von der Leyen, adding that international borders cannot be changed by force. The issue of borders is the exclusive right of Ukraine to decide.

In comments, French President Emmanuel Macron suggested that the issue of peacekeepers has been revived and that some European countries are willing to send troops to Ukraine to monitor a ceasefire, spearheaded by the coalition of the willing, led by Germany, France and the UK. Other comments by the EU leaders suggest that they are hoping to persuade Trump to join in this effort.

“Several states are ready to do so [boots on the ground], from training in logistics to presence in non-hot zones, that is, not on the front line, not in disputed territories, but to have a presence of allied forces alongside Ukraine,” Macron said. “We will go and present this also asking the United States of America how far and to what extent they are ready to join them, since they have put themselves on the table of security guarantees and reaffirmed it. And then the third is how to formalize this with regard to Ukraine.”

Donbas defences

Zelenskiy has good military reasons for not ceding the unoccupied parts of the Donetsk region that Putin is claiming. Kyiv has invested heavily in extensive defence around several cities in Donetsk that would make it very costly if the AFR attempted to take them by force. If Zelenskiy gives this away Russia would gain a launch pad for a second assault and the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) could be routed during its withdrawal from its defensive positions, the Institute for War said in a note.

ISW on the practical probs of AFU withdrawal from Donetsk – it’s not workable without a large scale Russian ceasefire:

"Putin notably has not offered a ceasefire under which Ukrainian forces would be able to safely withdraw across the Donetsk Oblast border and defend rear areas against renewed Russian aggression on the flanks,” ISW said in a note. “The Donetsk Oblast administrative boundary is far from Ukraine's main defensive line in Donetsk Oblast known as the "fortress belt," and even if Putin implemented a ceasefire long enough for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Donetsk Oblast, renewed Russian ground assaults and fires both from advancing forces in Donetsk Oblast and forces on the flank in Kharkiv Oblast would threaten Ukrainian forces along the frontline and in rear areas.”

A Ukrainian withdrawal would concentrate the AFU forces along a few roads out of the region, making them sitting ducks for Russian drone, artillery and missile strikes, says ISW.

There is also the possibility of a renewed Russian assault on the Kharkiv Oblast to the north of Donbas where the AFU would not have time to establish new well defended lines in the Kharkiv region after giving up their strong positions in Donbas.

“A partial ceasefire that does not extend to Russian military activity in Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts would therefore be insufficient for assuring the safe withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the remainder of Donetsk Oblast,” ISW said.