ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) has lifted force majeure on the long-delayed Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique, paving the way for work to resume and pushing the $30bn development significantly closer to a final investment decision.

The decision follows sustained improvements in security conditions in Cabo Delgado, where Islamist insurgency forced a suspension of onshore works in 2021. According to Reuters, regional forces have reclaimed key districts and stabilised strategic corridors, enabling operators to re-enter the Afungi site and restart assessments.

Rovuma LNG, operated by ExxonMobil with partners Eni (NYSE:E; ENI.MI), TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE; TTE.PA) and CNPC (state-owned, unlisted), is designed to produce around 15.2mn tonnes per year in its initial phase. Mozambique regards the project—alongside TotalEnergies’ adjacent $20bn Area 1 scheme and Eni’s Coral South/Norte floating LNG units—as central to its ambition to become a major global gas exporter. Although the projects sit side by side on the Afungi peninsula, they are being developed through separate liquefaction trains and facilities.

TotalEnergies in September lifted force majeure on its Mozambique LNG project, four years after work was halted in March 2021 due to security conditions in Cabo Delgado. In a letter to the Mozambican government, the French energy major said project costs had risen by $4.5bn and requested a 10-year extension to the development and production period.

ExxonMobil said it continues to work closely with the government and project partners to sequence engineering, procurement and early-works activity. The consortium is targeting an FID in 2026 and first LNG around 2030, aligning with the revised schedules emerging across the country’s LNG portfolio.

The force-majeure lift marks a material shift in operator confidence but does not eliminate risk. Security remains “managed rather than resolved”, and financing, insurance and cost-inflation pressures will heavily influence partner decisions.

Rovuma LNG is part of Mozambique’s Area 4 resource cluster, estimated to contain over 85tcf of natural gas. Exxon and Eni each hold 25% equity in the block. Exxon leads onshore LNG development, while Eni leads floating LNG units, including the Coral South FLNG, commissioned in 2022.

According to a 2024 Deloitte report, the successful full build-out of the TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil and Eni LNG developments could position Mozambique among the world’s top 10 LNG exporters by 2040.

In an upside case, an FID in 2025–26 and smooth ramp-up could see Rovuma LNG running above 90% capacity utilisation by the mid-2030s, supporting strong cash flows and placing Mozambique on track for LNG fiscal receipts well above the $1bn per year that international institutions view as plausible by 2035.

In a base case, timelines slip slightly but remain manageable, with first LNG in 2030–31 and capacity utilisation in the 80–85% range, delivering solid but cyclical fiscal gains. A downside case—marked by renewed violence, delayed partner mobilisation or a softer global LNG market—could push FID beyond 2028 and first LNG into the mid-2030s, sharply reducing output levels and compressing medium-term fiscal benefits.